Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis (Wave 2 Update)

RaceBrickyard 400 — Race 22 of 36

TrackIndianapolis Motor Speedway — 2.5-mile rectangular oval

Date / TimeSun, Jul 26 · 2:00 PM ET

TVTNT Sports

Length160 Laps · 400 mi

Track Type2.5-mile rectangular oval — Crown Jewel · 9° banking (flattest oval)

Practice / QualBoth held Sat, Jul 25 — full data available

PoleKyle Larson (#5) — 186.847 mph · Fastest 10-lap avg: Ryan Blaney (185.412 mph)

Outright OddsLarson +380 · Blaney +450 · Byron +550 — see board below

Wave 2 published Sat, Jul 25 — revised against today’s full qualifying and practice sessions. Kyle Larson went fastest in single-lap qualifying (186.847 mph) and takes the pole at the track where Hendrick’s aero package carries the biggest edge on the schedule. Ryan Blaney led every 10-lap practice average and is the race-day value case. The $1 million In-Season Challenge final is set: Christopher Bell vs. Chase Elliott — Bell won his NWB semifinal over Blaney, Elliott beat Gilliland — with both starters carrying extra motivation into a Crown Jewel afternoon. For last week’s race, see our North Wilkesboro picks; for what’s next, see the Iowa Corn 350, or jump to the Weekly Picks Hub.

Track Profile

The Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway returns to the oval in 2026 after years on the road course. The IMS oval is a 2.5-mile rectangular circuit — four near-identical 90° turns connected by long straights — with only 9° of banking. This is the flattest oval on the entire NASCAR schedule: Michigan has 18°, Pocono’s fastest corner has 14°, and even Martinsville has more banking than the Yard of Bricks. That extreme flatness makes aerodynamic efficiency the single most important variable on the car — there is no banking to help carry speed through the corners, so the drag-versus-downforce balance a team chooses defines everything. The Brickyard 400 is one of NASCAR’s five Crown Jewel events, and the iconic three-foot strip of original brick at the start-finish line remains one of the most recognizable symbols in American motorsport. NextGen oval data from Indy is essentially zero: the Cup Series ran the road course from 2020 through 2025, so the last oval Brickyard was 2020 — the pre-NextGen era. That data gap makes Pocono (2.5 mi, identical lap count) and Michigan (flat, speed-focused) the primary current-era comparables.

Key Factors Today

Qualifying confirmed what advance analysis predicted: Hendrick Motorsports and Team Penske own this track. Larson, Byron, and Blaney qualified P1–P3 and held the top-three 10-lap practice averages. Clean air is the defining resource at Indianapolis — the flat banking amplifies dirty-air handling loss more than any other oval, so starting position is a mechanical multiplier, not just a differential number. The July 26 afternoon start means peak Indiana summer heat: 90–95°F ambient, track surface well over 130°F, which loads tires and elevates the value of long-run pace management. Fuel strategy mirrors Pocono exactly at 160 laps — expect one to two green-flag pit sequences where the stretch-fuel temptation is real, and crew chiefs who can read consumption accurately will manufacture positions late. Crown Jewel racing means maximum team effort: best pit crews, deepest setups, and drivers who understand their playoff positioning in what is one of the last regular-season points opportunities before the Chase field locks.

Wave 2 published Sat, Jul 25 — full qualifying and practice in the books. The shape of the slate: Kyle Larson is the anchor — pole at the flattest oval where his Hendrick aero package is the strongest on the schedule, fastest qualifier by 0.224 mph; Ryan Blaney is the value case — P2 start, led every 10-lap practice average, fresh off his NWB win; William Byron rounds out the Hendrick trio — P3 in both qualifying and long-run practice, Hendrick’s steadiest car all season; Bell ($9,900) and Elliott ($9,400) carry ISC-final motivation from P5 and P4; and Denny Hamlin (P8, $10,400) is the core fade — flat ovals are the weakest page of his track-type résumé and the salary demands roster equity he can’t justify at Indianapolis.

★

Must-Starts Anchor your lineup here

M1. Kyle Larson#5 · Hendrick Motorsports · Chevrolet

The pole at the track where Hendrick’s aero advantage is worth the most on the schedule. Larson put down 186.847 mph to take the Brickyard pole — 0.224 mph faster than Blaney — at an oval where flat-corner aerodynamics and straightaway efficiency are the only things that matter. This is the exact profile Hendrick builds the best cars for: no banking to lean on, long straights to maximize, and a clean-air premium that compounds lap after lap. Larson has been the best driver at this type of flat-aero oval since joining the Cup Series and arrives off a 34th at North Wilkesboro where two spins buried an otherwise fast car — the form is unchanged, the result was the exception. The pole means he controls Stage 1 from the front, banking stage points before the fuel strategy even begins. At $11,000 he’s the slate-high salary, but this is the one track where the most expensive car routinely delivers the most points. Clean air, fastest car, Crown Jewel — lock him in.

P1Qualifying pole — 186.847 mph

+0.224mph margin over P2 Blaney — clear fastest

FlatOval specialist — Hendrick aero peak track

$11,000DraftKings — slate-high, earns it here

+380Race-day favorite

M2. Ryan Blaney#12 · Team Penske · Ford

Practice king, P2 on the grid, coming off a win — the best value case among the elites. Blaney led every 10-lap practice average (185.412 mph) and qualified P2 (186.623 mph). The long-run number is the one that matters over 160 laps: he was P1 on consecutive-lap averages of every length tested, which at Indianapolis — where tire management and aero balance degrade with each lap — is the most predictive metric of race-day competitiveness. He arrives off his dominant NWB win (led the race before Bell passed him in the semifinal bracket, but won the race on track) with nine consecutive top-10 finishes and a confidence that is visibly different from anything he’s shown in prior seasons. Penske’s flat-oval package has historically been the only organization that can match Hendrick at tracks like Pocono and Michigan, and today’s qualifying confirmed the cars are exactly that close. At $10,700 — $300 under Larson — and +450, this is where the field separates on the long run.

P110-lap practice average — 185.412 mph

P2Qualifying — 186.623 mph

9Straight top-10 finishes — NWB win last week

$10,700DraftKings — $300 under Larson

+450Second choice — practice-backed

M3. William Byron#24 · Hendrick Motorsports · Chevrolet

Third in qualifying, third in long-run practice, and the steadiest car in the field all season. Byron qualified P3 (186.401 mph) and placed third on 10-lap averages (185.144 mph) — exactly where Hendrick’s analysis would have predicted heading into the weekend. He’s been the most consistent points scorer on the Hendrick roster in 2026, and at a track that rewards the precise, clean-handed aero driving style he’s developed, his ceiling is higher than his average result. The P3 start gives him clean air through the opening stint, enough runway to stay out of early accidents, and a realistic path to stage points on every green-flag run. His pit crew is among the top five in average pit-road performance this season — meaningful at Indianapolis where strategy is as important as raw speed. At $10,200 he’s the cheapest of the three Hendrick/Penske front-runners; in GPP formats he’s the pivot that buys back salary for a second tier dart.

P3Qualifying — 186.401 mph

3rd10-lap practice average — 185.144 mph

SteadyMost consistent Hendrick scorer in 2026

$10,200DraftKings — cheapest front-row trio member

+550Third choice — fair price for the profile

☰

Value Plays Where the leverage lives

V1. Christopher Bell#20 · Joe Gibbs Racing · Toyota

$1 million on the line, P5 start, fourth-best long-run speed — at $9,900 this is the high-motivation value play. Bell qualified P5 (186.117 mph) and placed fourth on 10-lap practice averages (184.977 mph) — the top JGR flat-oval result and a meaningful step up from where Toyota has typically sat at tracks like this. He arrives off his NWB win (beat Blaney head-to-head in the semifinal) and faces Chase Elliott in the $1 million In-Season Challenge final today. That context matters for fantasy: Bell is not managing points or managing tires conservatively — he is racing to win a race that pays a million dollars, and his driving style at the front of the field will reflect that. JGR’s flat-oval package has improved noticeably since the Pocono weekend, and at $9,900 — $300 under Byron, $800 under Blaney — there is genuine salary leverage here if his 10-lap average translates to race pace. P5 on the inside of row three means no early accident exposure and realistic stage-point upside from lap one.

P5Qualifying — 186.117 mph

4th10-lap practice average — 184.977 mph

$1MISC final vs. Elliott — maximum motivation

$9,900DraftKings — $800 under Blaney

+700ISC bonus makes this better than the odds imply

V2. Chase Elliott#9 · Hendrick Motorsports · Chevrolet

P4 start, ISC finalist, fifth in 2026 points, and a flat-oval track record the rest of the field can’t match at this price. Elliott qualified P4 (186.288 mph) and placed fifth on practice long-run averages (184.855 mph) — splitting Bell cleanly and sitting inside the top-five bubble where Crown Jewel prestige and ISC stakes intersect. His flat-oval NASCAR track record (multiple wins at Michigan, Pocono, Charlotte) translates most directly to the IMS oval environment, and at $9,400 he is the cheapest driver starting in the first two rows. The ISC final against Bell adds the same maximum-motivation overlay as Bell himself: neither driver is conserving anything today. Hendrick’s No. 9 team brings the same aero package and the same pit crew quality as Larson and Byron, meaning the equipment ceiling here is identical to the slate-top picks at a salary $1,600 less than Larson. In cash games, Elliott is the most efficient path to Hendrick speed; in GPPs, he’s the pivot that makes a Larson-Blaney-Elliott lineup possible.

P4Qualifying — 186.288 mph

5th10-lap practice average — 184.855 mph

$9,400DraftKings — Hendrick aero at $1,600 discount vs. Larson

$1MISC final vs. Bell — racing to win, not manage

+750Fifth in points, fourth in qualifying — market undervalues

V3. Ty Gibbs#54 · Joe Gibbs Racing · Toyota

P13 in qualifying but sixth in long-run practice — a pace-versus-qualifying split that says the car is better than the grid spot. Gibbs qualified 13th (185.044 mph) and placed sixth in 10-lap practice averages (184.512 mph) — the largest gap between qualifying rank and long-run rank of any driver in the top ten. At a track where 160 laps separate the green flag from the checkered, long-run pace is what you’re betting on, and the practice sheet says Gibbs has it. He arrives off a top-4 at NWB, sits fourth in points, and has earned the reputation as the second-best JGR car this season behind Hamlin. The P13 start creates genuine place-differential upside and at $8,200 he’s three tiers below the must-start anchors. For lineups that want the Larson-Blaney top of the board but need to save salary in the middle, Gibbs at $8,200 is the connector play that makes the math work.

P13Qualifying — but 6th in 10-lap practice average

6th10-lap avg (184.512 mph) — better than his grid says

4th2026 points — career-best pace

$8,200DraftKings — $3,000 below Larson

+2000Long-run data says the odds are too long

☀

Sleepers High-variance darts

S1. Carson Hocevar#77 · Spire Motorsports · Chevrolet

Seventh in long-run practice with the cheapest salary of any driver in the top ten — the best place-differential argument in the mid-range. Hocevar qualified P15 (184.776 mph) and surprised on the long run, placing seventh in 10-lap averages (184.388 mph) — ahead of Logano, Reddick, and Cindric. Spire has evolved the No. 77 into a legitimately competitive car at tracks where drafting and clean air are primary, and a 2.5-mile oval at 186 mph fits that description perfectly. He sits eighth in points (career best), arrives off a podium at NWB, and DraftKings has his salary at $7,800 — a number calibrated for the mid-pack car he appeared to be at the start of the season, not the top-10-weekly machine he’s become. P15 starting spot means there is meaningful forward-position upside, and the long-run data says the floor is higher than the ticket price implies. High variance as always with Hocevar, but the math at $7,800 with seventh-best long-run speed works.

P15Qualifying start — forward runway

7th10-lap practice average — 184.388 mph

$7,800DraftKings — salary lagging his actual form

8th2026 points — NWB podium last week

+2500Long-run data says this price is too long

S2. Connor Zilisch#88 · Trackhouse Racing · Chevrolet

P27 on the grid, minimum-adjacent salary, and a long-run practice that said the car belongs at a flat oval — the pure leverage dart. Zilisch qualified 27th (183.233 mph) but placed ninth in 10-lap practice averages (184.201 mph) — a 18-spot gap between qualifying rank and long-run rank that stands as the largest on the entire slate. Trackhouse’s aero program has developed noticeably in 2026, and on a 2.5-mile flat oval where long-run balance is more important than single-lap peak speed, their cars have consistently run better in race trim than qualifying positions suggest. Zilisch starts P27 with demonstrated top-10 long-run pace — in place-differential formats that is the exact profile that produces the biggest weekly points swing. Near-minimum DraftKings pricing means this is the pure leverage dart: a top-15 finish is achievable, the ownership will be near zero, and the downside is you spent $5,700 on a car that finishes 27th anyway.

P27Qualifying — huge differential runway

9th10-lap practice average — 18 spots better than grid

Min $Near-minimum DraftKings pricing

Low %Zero ownership projected — pure leverage

AeroTrackhouse flat-oval program noticeably improved in 2026

S3. Ross Chastain#1 · Trackhouse Racing · Chevrolet

P11 start, eighth in long-run practice, Trackhouse’s lead car — the overlooked mid-range play. Chastain qualified P11 (185.310 mph) and placed eighth in 10-lap practice averages (184.288 mph) — immediately behind Hocevar and ahead of Reddick, Logano, and Cindric. In 2026 Trackhouse has been the fourth-best organization at flat-oval package tracks (behind Hendrick, Penske, and JGR-Bell), and Chastain is the car that carries their setup. P11 start means he avoids the bulk of early accordion incidents and starts the first fuel stint in a position where keeping track position is attainable. At $8,500 he’s priced in the same tier as Gibbs but starts seven positions better. The long-run data at a track this demanding is the reason to include him; the salary and starting spot make the math work for GPP builds that want a Trackhouse exposure without committing to the Zilisch dart.

P11Qualifying — inside the top 12

8th10-lap practice average — 184.288 mph

$8,500DraftKings — same tier as Gibbs, 7 spots better start

TKTrackhouse’s lead flat-oval car in 2026

+2200Long-run data vs. the books gap

⚠

Fades Avoid or use surgically

X1. Denny Hamlin#11 · Joe Gibbs Racing · Toyota

The points leader starts P8 — but flat ovals are the weakest page of his résumé and $10,400 is too much money to pay for eighth-place track position on the wrong track type. Hamlin qualified P8 (185.721 mph) and placed sixth in 10-lap practice (184.733 mph) — the best JGR flat-oval result outside Bell, and not a disaster. But this is the specific track-type pattern that repeats on his career résumé: Hamlin wins at short tracks, road courses, superspeedways, and high-banked 1.5-milers with mechanical grip, but flat-banking ovals like Pocono, Michigan, and now Indianapolis consistently underperform his overall win rate. The numbers are not shocking — P8 start, sixth-best long-run — but they are not worth $10,400, the third-highest salary on the slate, at a track where four other drivers have better track position AND better or equal long-run data for less money. Hamlin manages points here; the four drivers ahead of him in qualifying are not. At a Crown Jewel where every elite team races for the win, the defensive mindset of a points leader produces underperformance relative to salary. Leave the $10,400 for Blaney or Byron.

P8Qualifying — good but not premium starting spot

FlatOvals — weakest track type on career résumé

$10,400Third-highest salary — overpriced for this track type

PointsLeader mindset — manages risk here, doesn’t press

+900Books confirm the regression vs. his normal tracks

X2. Tyler Reddick#45 · 23XI Racing · Toyota

P9 start, decent practice, but 23XI’s flat-oval infrastructure gap versus Hendrick and Penske is the issue at $9,600. Reddick qualified P9 (185.603 mph) and posted a respectable eighth in practice long-run (184.211 mph) — numbers that look fine in isolation. The problem is context: at Indianapolis, the gap between the top-three aero organizations (Hendrick, Penske, JGR-Bell) and everyone else is the widest of any track on the schedule, and 23XI is still building the flat-oval program infrastructure that teams like Hendrick have refined over decades. Starting ninth is not a differential play — the cars ahead of him are genuinely faster — and the salary at $9,600 prices Reddick like a top-five finisher at a track where the data says fifth or sixth is closer to his ceiling. Second in points means the ownership will be high, which makes a middle-of-the-board finish a stack killer in tournament formats. At $9,600 you can have Bell ($9,900) with ISC motivation and better long-run data, or Elliott ($9,400) with Hendrick aero and the same ISC stakes. Pass.

P9Qualifying — not a differential play

$9,600Priced like top-5 upside the track doesn’t support

23XIFlat-oval infrastructure gap vs. Hendrick / Penske

High%2nd in points — tournament ownership will be high

+1100Books already pricing the IMS gap in

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Brickyard 400 Context Track stats, standings & the $1M final

Key Numbers to Know

2.5 miRectangular oval — four near-identical 90° turns

9°Turn banking — flattest oval on the Cup schedule

160Laps — same fuel window as Pocono (primary proxy)

CrownJewel — bonus prestige, max team effort

Hendrick / Penske Aero Advantage at Flat Ovals

3 of 4Front-row qualifiers were Hendrick or Penske

Top 3Long-run practice averages: Blaney, Larson, Byron — in that order

9°Banking amplifies dirty-air deficit — qualifying position premium is highest at any oval

PoconoBest NextGen comparable — same organization dominance pattern there

$1M In-Season Challenge Final — Bell vs. Elliott

The bracket is set: Christopher Bell beat Ryan Blaney in the North Wilkesboro semifinal (Bell dominated practice and converted the favorite's role), and Chase Elliott dispatched Todd Gilliland in the other bracket leg. Bell and Elliott meet today at the Brickyard for the $1 million prize — the highest single-race bonus in NASCAR history. The matchup structure is simple: higher finisher takes the check. Neither driver will manage tires, conserve fuel margin, or protect position; both are racing as if the race is the championship. For fantasy, this means two of your P4–P5 starters are in maximum attack mode from lap one — which raises their ceiling and their crash risk in equal measure.

2026 Cup Points Standings (Top 12, after North Wilkesboro — Race 21 of 36)

Pos	Driver	Pts	Pos	Driver	Pts
1	Denny Hamlin (#11)	816	7	Chris Buescher (#17)	581
2	Tyler Reddick (#45)	791	8	Carson Hocevar (#77)	591
3	Ryan Blaney (#12)	762	9	Christopher Bell (#20)	586
4	Ty Gibbs (#54)	690	10	Chase Briscoe (#19)	551
5	Chase Elliott (#9)	635	11	Daniel Suárez (#7)	541
6	Kyle Larson (#5)	610	12	William Byron (#24)	538

Standings after Race 21 (North Wilkesboro). Five regular-season races remain after today before the Chase field locks. Confirm against NASCAR.com before setting lineups.

What Separates Indianapolis from Other Ovals

The IMS oval is in a category of one. The 9° banking creates a car-balance challenge unlike anything else on the schedule: without mechanical grip from banking, cars must generate downforce aerodynamically to stay planted in the flat 90° corners, and that downforce creates drag on the long straights. Teams that solve the downforce-drag trade-off most efficiently — Hendrick and Penske have two decades of IMS oval data from the era before the road course switch — run meaningfully faster than everyone else regardless of driver talent. This is the track where the gap between the top two organizations and the field is widest, and today’s qualifying session confirmed that gap is still real in the NextGen era.

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Starting Grid, Practice & Odds Board Qualifying held Sat, Jul 25 — 37-car field

Starting Grid — Brickyard 400 (37 cars, set by qualifying)

Pos	Driver	Speed	Pos	Driver	Speed
1	Kyle Larson (#5)	186.847	20	Shane van Gisbergen (#97)	184.155
2	Ryan Blaney (#12)	186.623	21	Austin Dillon (#3)	183.955
3	William Byron (#24)	186.401	22	Erik Jones (#43)	183.844
4	Chase Elliott (#9)	186.288	23	Chase Briscoe (#19)	183.721
5	Christopher Bell (#20)	186.117	24	Michael McDowell (#71)	183.598
6	Joey Logano (#22)	185.982	25	Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (#47)	183.477
7	Austin Cindric (#2)	185.844	26	Todd Gilliland (#34)	183.354
8	Denny Hamlin (#11)	185.721	27	Connor Zilisch (#88)	183.233
9	Tyler Reddick (#45)	185.603	28	John H. Nemechek (#42)	183.112
10	Martin Truex Jr. (#19†)	185.476	29	Cole Custer (#41)	182.991
11	Ross Chastain (#1)	185.310	30	Zane Smith (#38)	182.867
12	Chris Buescher (#17)	185.188	31	Ryan Preece (#60)	182.745
13	Ty Gibbs (#54)	185.044	32	Ty Dillon (#10)	182.623
14	Alex Bowman (#48)	184.912	33	Noah Gragson (#4)	182.502
15	Carson Hocevar (#77)	184.776	34	Riley Herbst (#35)	182.381
16	Brad Keselowski (#6)	184.655	35	Austin Hill (#33)	182.267
17	Josh Berry (#21)	184.521	36	AJ Allmendinger (#16)	181.655
18	Bubba Wallace (#23)	184.398	37	Cody Ware (#51)	180.944
19	Daniel Suárez (#7)	184.267

Speeds in mph from Saturday’s single-lap qualifying session, Jul 25. †Martin Truex Jr. is listed as a substitute entry for Race 22 at IMS. Confirm final entry list against NASCAR.com before locking lineups.

Practice Long-Run Rankings (10-lap average, Jul 25)

Rank	Driver	10-Lap Avg	Qual Pos
1	Ryan Blaney (#12)	185.412 mph	P2
2	Kyle Larson (#5)	185.288 mph	P1 (pole)
3	William Byron (#24)	185.144 mph	P3
4	Christopher Bell (#20)	184.977 mph	P5
5	Chase Elliott (#9)	184.855 mph	P4
6	Ty Gibbs (#54)	184.512 mph	P13
7	Carson Hocevar (#77)	184.388 mph	P15
8	Ross Chastain (#1)	184.288 mph	P11
9	Connor Zilisch (#88)	184.201 mph	P27
10	Denny Hamlin (#11)	184.733 mph	P8

Long-run rankings from Saturday practice session. Note Gibbs (P13 qual / 6th long-run) and Zilisch (P27 qual / 9th long-run) as the biggest qualifying-vs-race-pace gaps on the slate.

Race-Day Odds Board (Outright Winner)

Driver	Odds	Start	Driver	Odds	Start
Kyle Larson	+380	P1	Joey Logano	+1400	P6
Ryan Blaney	+450	P2	Austin Cindric	+1600	P7
William Byron	+550	P3	Ty Gibbs	+2000	P13
Christopher Bell	+700	P5	Ross Chastain	+2200	P11
Chase Elliott	+750	P4	Carson Hocevar	+2500	P15
Denny Hamlin	+900	P8	Connor Zilisch	+4000	P27
Tyler Reddick	+1100	P9	Chris Buescher	+3500	P12

Odds as of Saturday evening, Jul 25, following qualifying; lines move through Sunday morning and up to the green flag — confirm before betting. Confirmed DraftKings salaries (top of the board): Larson $11,000 · Blaney $10,700 · Hamlin $10,400 · Byron $10,200 · Bell $9,900 · Reddick $9,600 · Elliott $9,400 · Logano $9,100 · Cindric $8,700 · Chastain $8,500 · Gibbs $8,200 · Hocevar $7,800 · Keselowski $7,600 · Buescher $7,400 · Bowman $7,200 · Berry $7,000 · Wallace $6,800 · Suárez $6,600 · McDowell $6,200 · Zilisch near minimum. Remaining salaries were not published in our confirmed sources.

This is the Wave 2 (race-day) update for the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway — the Crown Jewel return to the IMS oval — revised against Saturday’s qualifying session and practice data. Kyle Larson takes the pole at 186.847 mph; Ryan Blaney leads every 10-lap practice average; Christopher Bell and Chase Elliott meet in the $1 million In-Season Challenge final. For last week’s race, see our North Wilkesboro picks; for what’s next, see the Iowa Corn 350. Or browse the 2026 Strategy Guide, Season-Long Rankings, and Weekly Picks Hub.