Fantasy NASCAR Picks This Week: Cook Out 400 at Martinsville

Denny Hamlin owns the pole and six career wins at NASCAR’s tightest short track, but the betting market favors Ryan Blaney — and the experts largely agree. Updated with full qualifying grid, practice speeds, and Saturday analysis.

RaceCook Out 400 (77th edition)

TrackMartinsville Speedway — 0.526-mile flat paperclip oval

Date / TimeSun, Mar 29 · ~3:30 PM ET (broadcast 2:00 PM)

TVFS1 · FOX Sports App · Fubo

Length400 Laps · 210.4 mi

StagesS1: Laps 1–80 · S2: Laps 81–180 · Final: 181–400

Tire Sets10 dry (8 race + 1 qual transfer + 1 practice) · 4 wet

Fuel Window~175 laps

PoleDenny Hamlin — 19.275 sec (98.241 mph)

Sun Weather64°F · Mostly Sunny · SSW 10–15 mph · 2% rain

For the Round of 8 elimination race at Martinsville, see our Xfinity 500 picks.

Track Profile

Martinsville Speedway is the shortest and oldest track on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule — a 0.526-mile flat paperclip-shaped oval that has hosted racing since 1949. Unlike any other track on the schedule, Martinsville’s two long straightaways feed into extremely tight, flat turns with just 12° of banking. This layout creates a unique racing dynamic: drivers build speed on the straights and then must hammer the brakes entering the turns, making Martinsville the most brake-intensive track in the Cup Series. The resulting bumper-to-bumper racing, frequent contact, and short-track tempers produce some of NASCAR’s most dramatic finishes.

The track surface is concrete in the turns and asphalt on the straightaways — a hybrid surface that creates variable grip zones. The left-side tires wear rapidly on the concrete corners while right-side tires hold grip on the asphalt straights. Tire strategy (2-tire vs. 4-tire stops) will be a decisive factor — Larson won the 2023 spring race with a bold 2-tire gamble. Teams that manage brake temperatures over 400 laps gain a significant late-race advantage. Track position is everything: 70% of historical winners started in the top 10.

Key Factors This Week

This is the first true short track running the new 2026 750-HP, low-downforce package (3-inch rear spoiler, fewer diffuser strakes). The increased horsepower places a premium on throttle control, tire management, and braking — all strengths of Martinsville veterans. The last 8 Martinsville Cup races have been won exclusively by Hendrick Motorsports (4 wins), Team Penske (2 wins), and Joe Gibbs Racing (2 wins).

Ryan Blaney is the betting favorite at +450 (FanDuel) despite starting 12th. The market trusts his 4.5 NextGen average finish over Hamlin’s pole position. Hamlin captured his 49th career pole (19.275 sec) and has 6 career wins here — he led 274 laps in last year’s spring demolition. The tension between Blaney’s track-history dominance and Hamlin’s pole-position advantage defines this race.

Key note: Alex Bowman (No. 48 HMS Chevrolet) is OUT for his fourth consecutive race due to vertigo. Justin Allgaier subs in the No. 48 and qualified P21. The JGR-Spire trade secrets lawsuit had a 6-hour hearing on March 26 with no ruling — a significant distraction for both organizations.

Radio: MRN · SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Ch. 90

Saturday Results Qualifying Grid & Practice Speeds

Qualifying Results — Hamlin Captures 49th Career Pole

Denny Hamlin clocked a 19.275-second lap at 98.241 mph to earn his 5th Martinsville pole and 49th career Busch Light Pole Award. The top 10 is loaded with contenders, while several key fantasy names qualified further back, creating DFS place-differential opportunities.

Pos	Driver	#	Team	Time
1	Denny Hamlin	11	Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota	19.275
2	William Byron	24	Hendrick Motorsports Chevy	19.331
3	Josh Berry	21	Wood Brothers Racing Ford	19.334
4	Ty Gibbs	54	Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota	19.338
5	Shane van Gisbergen	97	Kaulig Racing Chevy	19.339
6	Austin Cindric	2	Team Penske Ford	19.351
7	Carson Hocevar	77	SHR Chevy	19.363
8	Tyler Reddick	45	23XI Racing Toyota	19.376
9	Joey Logano	22	Team Penske Ford	19.389
10	Chase Elliott	9	Hendrick Motorsports Chevy	19.392
11	Christopher Bell	20	Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota	19.398
12	Ryan Blaney	12	Team Penske Ford	19.429
13	Kyle Larson	5	Hendrick Motorsports Chevy	19.432
14	Zane Smith	38	SHR Ford	19.444
15	Bubba Wallace	23	23XI Racing Toyota	19.445
16	Chris Buescher	17	RFK Racing Ford	19.446
17	Ryan Preece	60	RFK Racing Ford	19.453
18	Ross Chastain	1	Trackhouse Racing Chevy	19.457
19	Erik Jones	43	Legacy Motor Club Toyota	19.486
20	Michael McDowell	71	Spire Motorsports Chevy	19.495
21	Justin Allgaier	48	Hendrick Motorsports Chevy	19.503
22	Daniel Suárez	7	Spire Motorsports Chevy	19.508
23	Brad Keselowski	6	RFK Racing Ford	19.518
24	Cole Custer	41	Haas Factory Team Chevy	19.530
25	Connor Zilisch	88	Trackhouse Racing Chevy	19.536
26	Riley Herbst	35	Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota	19.561
27	Chase Briscoe	19	Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota	19.562
28	AJ Allmendinger	16	Kaulig Racing Chevy	19.578
29	Todd Gilliland	34	Front Row Motorsports Ford	19.588
30	Austin Dillon	3	RCR Chevy	19.625
31	Noah Gragson	4	SHR Ford	19.650
32	John Hunter Nemechek	42	Legacy Motor Club Toyota	19.664
33	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	47	Hyak Motorsports Chevy	19.676
34	Kyle Busch	8	RCR Chevy	19.705
35	Cody Ware	51	Rick Ware Racing Chevy	19.719
36	Ty Dillon	10	Kaulig Racing Chevy	19.760
37	Austin Hill	33	RCR Chevy	19.921

Key Qualifying Storylines

Shane van Gisbergen’s P5 is his best-ever oval qualifying effort in the Cup Series. Austin Cindric (P6) and Carson Hocevar (P7) both found major speed in qualifying after running 31st and 28th in practice, respectively. Conversely, Todd Gilliland was P5 in practice but qualified only P29 — the biggest practice-to-qualifying drop-off of the session.

Ty Gibbs qualified an excellent P4, his best Martinsville start ever, despite never cracking the top-10 here in 7 Cup starts. Three of the four JGR entries qualified in the top 11 (Hamlin P1, Gibbs P4, Bell P11), making JGR the strongest team by average qualifying position.

Ryan Blaney’s P12 start is notable — he has never finished worse than P7 in the NextGen era at Martinsville. Starting outside the top 10 but still the betting favorite speaks to how much the market trusts his race-day execution here.

Practice Speeds — A Different Hierarchy

Saturday’s 50-minute practice session told a different story than qualifying. Bubba Wallace posted the fastest single lap (19.685s) while Chase Elliott dominated the critical 10-lap average rankings. Several drivers who excelled in practice struggled in qualifying, and vice versa.

P1Wallace — fastest practice lap (19.685s)

P1Elliott — best 10-lap avg (long run king)

P1Larson — best 15/20/25/30-lap avgs

P5Gilliland — fast in practice, P29 in qual

10-lap average leaders (long-run indicator): 1. Chase Elliott · 2. Bubba Wallace · 3. Ryan Blaney · 4. Kyle Larson · 5. Josh Berry. Larson posted the best 15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-lap averages in Group 1, signaling elite long-run pace despite qualifying only 13th.

Tyler Reddick “struggled for pace in practice” per NASCAR.com despite qualifying a solid 8th. Chase Briscoe told MRN Radio he was “much better with SHR at Martinsville than with JGR” — a concerning comment given his P27 qualifying spot.

Quick Reference Picks

Must-Start #1

Ryan Blaney

Betting favorite (+450), 4.5 NextGen avg finish, 3rd-best long-run pace in practice, starts P12

Must-Start #2

Denny Hamlin

Pole (49th career), 6 wins here, P3 in practice speed, 2,722 career laps led at Martinsville

Value Play

Joey Logano

Perfect 6-for-6 NextGen top-10 record, starts P9, +1200 — market punishing Darlington P33

Sleeper

Ryan Preece

Near-unanimous expert sleeper, P8 in practice, odds moved +6000→+3000, starts P17

Fade

Tyler Reddick

Zero top-5s in 12 Martinsville starts, struggled in practice, odds drifted +900→+1400

Fade

Brad Keselowski

P17+ in 7 of 8 NextGen starts, qualified P23, odds drifted +2000→+3500

Must-Starts Lock These Two In

Ryan Blaney#12 · Team Penske · Ford+450

2-time Martinsville winner · best NextGen average finish in the field · betting favorite

Blaney is the statistical king of Martinsville in the NextGen era. His two wins, 4.5 average finish, and 5 top-10s in 6 NextGen starts make him the most reliable pick on the board. He has never DNF’d at Martinsville in 20 career starts and has 11 top-5s, 13 top-10s, and 731 career laps led at this track. His career average finish of 8.2 at the Paperclip is the best among all active drivers. He won at Phoenix earlier this season and sits second in the championship standings behind Reddick (230 points). At Martinsville, where track position and restarts decide races, Blaney’s ability to restart aggressively and hold position through traffic is unmatched.

Saturday Update: Blaney qualified P12 after running 3rd in 10-lap practice averages — a familiar pattern of modest qualifying but elite long-run speed. Starting outside the top 10 is not ideal, but he has never finished worse than 7th in the NextGen era at Martinsville regardless of starting position. The betting market has made him the outright favorite at +450 (FanDuel) and +475 (BetMGM), trusting his race pace over qualifying speed. Multiple expert sources — iFantasyRace, DraftKings Network, NASCAR.com — name him their #1 pick this week. Confidence is at maximum.

2Martinsville Wins NextGen

4.5Avg Finish NextGen — best in field

8.2Career Avg Finish (20 starts)

P12Starting Position

0Career DNFs at Martinsville

Denny Hamlin#11 · Joe Gibbs Racing · Toyota+525

Pole winner (49th career) · 6 career Martinsville wins · led 274 laps in spring 2025

Hamlin has more wins at Martinsville (6) than any active driver and his dominance in last year’s spring race was total — he led 274 of 400 laps and won by 4.617 seconds. His 52.5% top-5 rate and 67.5% top-10 rate across 40 career starts here are staggering. He has 2,722 career laps led at Martinsville and ranks 3rd in NextGen Speed Rankings. He just won at Las Vegas two weeks ago and arrives with strong form despite a disappointing Darlington.

Saturday Update: Hamlin captured the pole with a 19.275-second lap (98.241 mph) — his 5th Martinsville pole and 49th career pole overall. He was also P3 in single-lap practice speed (19.732s), confirming the No. 11 car has both qualifying and race-day speed. Starting from P1 at a track where 70% of historical winners started in the top 10 is an enormous advantage. The concern is that his NextGen Martinsville record (1 win, 9.8 avg finish) is less dominant than his career numbers — but starting on pole with this track pedigree makes him the highest-floor play on the board.

6Career Martinsville Wins — most active

P1Starting Position (Pole)

2,722Career Laps Led at Martinsville

4.8Avg Finish last 7 clean races

52.5%Career Top-5 Rate

Value Plays Strong Points-Per-Dollar Options

Joey Logano#22 · Team Penske · Ford+1200

Perfect 6-for-6 NextGen top-10 record at Martinsville · starts P9 · severely undervalued

Logano is the most undervalued play on the board this week. He has finished in the top 10 in all six NextGen-era Martinsville races — a perfect record — with a 6.5 average finish and 122 laps led. His career resume includes 1 win, 11 top-5s, 22 top-10s, and 1,220 laps led in 34 starts. The market is punishing him for a disastrous Darlington (P33), but Martinsville-specific data overwhelmingly favors him. Starting P9 puts him inside the top 10 where 70% of historical winners have started. DraftKings Network named him a top DFS value play at $9,000.

Saturday Update: Logano qualified P9 (19.389s) and showed strong speed late in practice runs, ranking 3rd in Group 1 for 30-lap averages. Starting inside the top 10 at a track where he has never finished worse than 8th in the NextGen era is a gift at +1200. The Darlington P33 is noise — Logano’s Martinsville consistency is among the most bankable stats in the field.

6-for-6NextGen Top-10 Record (perfect)

6.5Avg Finish NextGen

P9Starting Position

1,220Career Laps Led at Martinsville

+1200Odds (huge value)

Christopher Bell#20 · Joe Gibbs Racing · Toyota+800

2022 Martinsville winner · P2 in spring 2025 behind teammate Hamlin · 225 laps led in 2026

Bell won the fall 2022 Martinsville race and finished second behind JGR teammate Hamlin in the spring 2025 Cook Out 400 after winning the pole. His Martinsville resume includes 1 win, 5 top-10s, and 184 laps led in 12 starts. He leads all drivers in 2026 laps led (225) despite zero wins, including 176 laps led at Phoenix — he has the speed to win but hasn’t converted yet. Martinsville is a much better fit for Bell’s aggressive driving style than the tire-destruction derby at Darlington. At +800, he offers JGR equipment at a discount behind Hamlin.

Saturday Update: Bell qualified P11 (19.398s), putting three JGR cars in the top 11 (Hamlin P1, Gibbs P4, Bell P11). Starting P11 at a track where he finished P2 in the spring and won the fall in 2022 is a solid position. His 2026 season has produced three straight top-6 finishes before the Darlington stumble. At +800, his combination of JGR equipment, recent track history, and starting position is compelling.

1Martinsville Win — Fall 2022

P2Spring 2025 Finish

P11Starting Position

2252026 Laps Led (most in series)

+800Odds

Sleepers Lower-Tier Upside Picks

Ryan Preece#60 · RFK Racing · Ford+2800

Near-unanimous expert sleeper · P8 in practice · odds sharply moving · Clash winner

Preece is the consensus sleeper pick across virtually every major expert source this week. He was named sleeper of the week on the Dale Jr. Download, best value pick at Covers.com, longshot play at DraftKings Network, and a DFS target at RotoWire. His odds have moved sharply from +6000 to +3000 at BetMGM (most tickets and handle). At Martinsville, he ranks 9th in average finishing position (11.8) among active drivers since 2023 and finished in the top 10 in both races here last season. He won the preseason Clash at Bowman Gray and is the only active driver whose first career Cup pole came at Martinsville.

Saturday Update: Preece was P8 in single-lap practice speed (19.745s) and qualified P17, exactly the kind of practice-to-qualifying gap that creates DFS place-differential value. The entire RFK organization showed genuine speed at Darlington, and that momentum has carried to Martinsville. Three finishes of 9th or better in his last four Martinsville starts — starting P17 with this race-day pace is a top-10 threat at a minimum.

11.8Avg Finish at Martinsville since 2023

P8Practice Speed Rank

P17Starting Position

+6000→+3000Sharp Odds Movement

Bubba Wallace#23 · 23XI Racing · Toyota+2200

Fastest in practice · 10.5 NextGen avg finish · back-to-back spring top-5s here

In the NextGen era, Wallace has a 10.5 average finish at Martinsville with two top-5 finishes (3rd twice), a dramatic improvement over his 16.1 career average. He was P3 in the spring 2025 Cook Out 400 behind Hamlin and Bell. He sits 3rd in the 2026 championship standings (205 points) with 2 stage wins and 4 top-10s in 6 races, though his P34 at Darlington (5 laps down) is a concern.

Saturday Update: Wallace posted the fastest practice lap of anyone (19.685s) and had the best 10-lap average in Group 1, ranking 2nd in both 20- and 30-lap averages — Kevin Harvick praised his corner exit speed on commentary. He qualified P15, creating DFS place-differential upside given that his practice speed was the best in the field. RotoWire specifically called this “not the weekend to keep Wallace on the bench,” citing his back-to-back spring top-5s here. At +2200, the practice dominance and NextGen track data make him a viable top-10 play with sneaky top-5 upside.

P1Fastest Practice Lap (19.685s)

10.5Avg Finish NextGen Era

P15Starting Position

+2200Odds

Fades Popular Names to Avoid This Week

Tyler Reddick#45 · 23XI Racing · Toyota+1400

4 wins in 6 races · 95-point lead — but zero top-5s in 12 Martinsville starts

Reddick has won 4 of 6 races in 2026 and leads the championship by 95 points. He just won Darlington from the pole despite battery/alternator issues. But Martinsville remains his worst Cup track — zero top-5s in 12 starts, a 19.4 career average finish, and only 6 laps led across his entire Martinsville career. The market has recognized this: his odds have drifted from +900 to +1400. NASCAR.com, iFantasyRace, and multiple expert sources list him as a consensus fade. He is the only driver with 10+ Martinsville starts and zero top-5 finishes.

Saturday Update: Reddick qualified P8 (19.376s) — a solid starting position. But he “struggled for pace in practice” per NASCAR.com, which is the more important indicator for a 400-lap race at a track where long-run speed matters most. Starting P8 could produce a decent finish purely on track position, but at +1400, the risk-reward is poor relative to proven Martinsville performers who have similar or better starting positions.

0Career Top-5s at Martinsville (12 starts)

19.4Career Avg Finish — worst Cup track

P8Starting Position

+900→+1400Odds Drift (market correction)

Brad Keselowski#6 · RFK Racing · Ford+3500

Darlington momentum is a trap — P17+ in 7 of 8 NextGen Martinsville starts

Keselowski’s dominant Darlington (swept both stages, led 142 laps, finished P2) created enormous buzz, but his NextGen-era Martinsville numbers are brutal: 22.7 average finish, 0 top-5s, and only 1 top-10 in 8 starts. He has finished P17 or worse in 7 of those 8 races despite 2 career wins and 12 career top-5s at this track from his pre-NextGen days. The market has corrected sharply — odds drifted from +2000 to +3500. Multiple expert sources (iFantasyRace, NASCAR.com Fantasy Fastlane) name him a consensus sit/fade.

Saturday Update: Keselowski qualified P23 (19.518s), reinforcing the concern. Starting P23 at a track where passing under green is extremely difficult, combined with his NextGen-era struggles here, makes him a clear fade despite the Darlington momentum. The career numbers say Martinsville winner; the NextGen data says mid-20s finisher. Trust the recent data.

22.7Avg Finish NextGen Era

7 of 8NextGen Finishes at P17+

P23Starting Position

+2000→+3500Odds Drift

Connor Zilisch#88 · Trackhouse Racing · Chevrolet+10000

Talented rookie with Xfinity short-track speed — but zero Cup experience at Martinsville

Zilisch has shown flashes of brilliance in his rookie year, but Martinsville is the single worst track on the schedule for a rookie to shine. The tight quarters, heavy braking, and veteran-dominated restarts punish inexperience ruthlessly. He does have an Xfinity win at Martinsville (won pole and both stages in spring 2025, finished 9th in fall 2025), but the Cup Series at this track is a different animal. He has 2 DNFs in 6 Cup starts this season.

Saturday Update: Zilisch was P6 in practice speed (19.742s), showing legitimate short-track pace that backs up his Xfinity success here. But he qualified only P25 (19.536s) — the gap between his practice speed and qualifying position suggests the No. 88 team hasn’t dialed in a qualifying setup yet. Starting P25 at a track where passing under green is nearly impossible is a significant handicap. His odds have moved to +10000, reflecting the market’s skepticism.

0Martinsville Cup Starts

P6Practice Speed (promising)

P25Starting Position

Storylines to Watch Factors That Could Shake Up Fantasy Scores

Can Anyone Stop Tyler Reddick?

Reddick’s 4-win, 95-point lead entering Martinsville is historically dominant — he joins Dale Earnhardt and Bill Elliott as the only drivers to win 4 of the first 6 races. But Martinsville is his statistical Achilles’ heel — zero top-5s in 12 Cup starts. The 2026 season has been about Reddick breaking through at tracks where he’s never won before, so the question is whether that trend continues or track DNA finally catches up.

The JGR-Spire Trade Secrets Lawsuit

Joe Gibbs Racing filed suit against former Director of Competition Chris Gabehart and Spire Motorsports, alleging theft of car setups, simulation files, and strategic data. A March 26 hearing produced a 6-hour court session with no ruling — the restraining order was extended to April 9. This is a significant organizational distraction for both teams heading into race weekend.

The New Chase Format

NASCAR replaced the playoff system with a Chase format for 2026 — top 16 after 26 races qualify, with win points increased from 40 to 55. With only three different winners through six races (Reddick 4, Blaney 1, Hamlin 1), stage points and consistency carry enormous weight, making strong finishes at Martinsville crucial for winless drivers like Bell, Elliott, and Gibbs.

2026 Points Standings Context

1stReddick (325 pts, 4 wins)

2ndBlaney (230 pts, 1 win)

3rdWallace (205 pts)

4thHamlin (203 pts, 1 win)

☰

How We Pick Our 4-Step Methodology

Historical Track Analysis

We review each driver’s last 5+ starts at Martinsville — average finish, average running position, laps led, and stage points earned. Short track data is among the most predictive in NASCAR because the skills that win here (braking, restarts, traffic management) are consistent race to race.

Recent Form Check

A driver’s performance over the last 3–5 races indicates current momentum. The Darlington results provide critical context — which teams showed speed under the 750 HP package, and which struggled to adapt.

Practice & Qualifying Integration

Saturday’s data is now integrated. At Martinsville, qualifying position is extremely important because passing is so difficult. Long-run practice averages (10-, 20-, 30-lap) are more predictive than single-lap speed for a 400-lap race. Drivers like Blaney and Elliott who showed elite long-run pace are upgraded; drivers like Reddick who struggled in practice are flagged.

Value Assessment

We compare expected performance against salary or tier placement. At Martinsville, the gap between the short-track specialists (Blaney, Hamlin, Byron, Larson) and the rest of the field is wider than at most tracks — invest in the proven performers. For more on our overall strategy framework, see the full guide.

Updated analysis incorporating Saturday practice speeds, qualifying results, and full starting grid. Historical track data covers the NextGen era (2022–present) and each driver’s full Martinsville career. 2026 season form through Darlington (Race 6). Betting odds from DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel, and Caesars as of March 28. Alex Bowman (No. 48, HMS) is OUT — Justin Allgaier subs. 37 entries for 37 spots — all cars qualified. For more fantasy NASCAR strategy, see our 2026 Strategy Guide, Season-Long Rankings, or return to the Weekly Picks Hub.

Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway