RaceCook Out 400 — Race 24 of 36
TrackRichmond Raceway — 0.75-mile D-shaped asphalt oval
Date / TimeSat, Aug 15 · 7:00 PM ET
TVUSA Network
Length400 Laps · ~300 mi · Stages: 80 / 180 / 400
Track Type0.75-mile D-shaped asphalt oval · 14° banking · 750 HP package
Practice / QualBoth held Sat, Aug 15 — same-day, full data available
PoleDenny Hamlin (#11) — 128.012 mph · Fastest 10-lap avg: Christopher Bell (126.812 mph)
Outright OddsHamlin +320 · Bell +420 · Elliott +550 — see board below
Wave 2 published Sat, Aug 15 — revised against today’s same-day qualifying and practice. Denny Hamlin took the pole (128.012 mph) at his literal home track — he was born twelve miles away in Chesterfield County, Virginia, and is the all-time Cup Series wins leader at Richmond. Christopher Bell led every long-run practice interval (126.812 mph best average) and arrives off last week’s Iowa win. Chase Elliott (P3, 126.512 mph long-run) is the breakout pick of the slate. Two races remain after tonight before the Daytona regular-season finale sets the full 16-driver Chase field; bubble desperation is at its seasonal peak. For last week’s race, see our Iowa Corn 350 picks; for what’s next, see the Mobil 1 301 at New Hampshire, or jump to the Weekly Picks Hub.
Track Profile
Richmond Raceway is a 0.75-mile D-shaped asphalt short track that occupies its own niche on the schedule. The asphalt surface sets it apart immediately from Bristol’s concrete and North Wilkesboro’s abrasive surface — Richmond asphalt lays rubber progressively through the race, creating a track that gets faster in the middle of a run and then falls off sharply toward the end of a long green-flag stint. That arc requires a different tire conservation calculus than the concrete short tracks: the initial stint on fresh rubber at Richmond is almost too fast, and managing entry speed in the first dozen laps to protect tires for the last ten is a skill that separates the elite short-track runners from the merely fast. At 14° of banking — between Martinsville’s 12° and Bristol’s steep walls — Richmond produces a cornering profile where mechanical grip dominates aerodynamic assistance, rewarding smooth, controlled driving over maximum entry aggression.
Denny Hamlin is the undisputed king of this track. He was born twelve miles away in Chesterfield County, Virginia, grew up watching races here, and has translated that familiarity into the most wins in Cup Series history at Richmond. His driving style — smooth on entry, patient through the center, maximizing exit speed rather than braking as late as possible — is practically built for asphalt short tracks where tire preservation compounds over 400 laps. JGR brings two other strong cars tonight (Bell P2, Truex P7), and the 750 HP short-track package that applies at every short track in 2026 plays to the organization’s strengths.
Key Factors Tonight
The Saturday night lights are a genuine variable at Richmond. Cooler evening temperatures reduce track surface temperature significantly compared to a midday start, which compresses tire degradation rates and allows teams to push harder on entry without burning the tires as quickly. Night racing at Richmond historically produces slightly longer green-flag stints, more two-tire pit strategy viability, and tighter racing through the final stage because the tires hold up better under the lights than in the August afternoon heat. Teams with setups tuned for maximum mechanical balance — rather than setups designed to survive extreme tire wear — benefit from the cooler night conditions.
Same-day practice and qualifying is the sharpest edge in tonight’s slate. Teams arrived at Richmond this morning with their committed setup direction and had one practice session to confirm it before qualifying. Organizations with deep Richmond data — specifically, teams that have run this track frequently in both the Xfinity and Cup series under similar conditions — don’t need practice to validate their setup, they use practice to refine it. JGR fits that description precisely. The Chase bubble enters its most desperate phase tonight: with only New Hampshire and Daytona remaining after this race, drivers in positions 14–20 in points are making moves that have no equivalent anywhere else on the regular-season schedule. Stage 3 at Richmond will be more aggressive, more risky, and more volatile than anything a normal November playoff race would produce. Track position entering the final stage is the single most important pre-race variable at a short track where passing is hard and pit strategy rarely produces a free pass to the front.
Wave 2 published Sat, Aug 15 — same-day qualifying and practice complete. Tonight’s slate shape: Denny Hamlin is the anchor — pole at his home track, the all-time Richmond wins leader, second in long-run practice, JGR’s most complete Richmond package; Christopher Bell is the long-run king — won Iowa last Sunday, leads every 10-lap practice interval tonight at 126.812 mph despite starting P2; Chase Elliott ($9,800, P3) is the slate’s best leverage play — third in qualifying and third in long-run practice, HMS arriving with all four cars in the top 10 of qualifying; Chris Buescher ($8,400, P9 qual / P4 long-run) is the value anchor — biggest qualifying-to-race-trim gap on the board at RFK’s improved short-track package; and Kyle Larson ($10,400, P10 qual / 9th long-run) is the core fade — HMS fourth-priority at a track where Elliott and Byron both outqualified and outlasted him in practice, salary implies Larson dominance his Richmond data cannot support.
The pole at his home track, the all-time Richmond wins leader, second in long-run practice — this is the most complete pre-race profile on the slate. Hamlin qualified first (128.012 mph) and placed second on 10-lap practice averages (126.634 mph), right behind Bell — confirming his speed is real in both qualifying trim and race trim. Richmond is not just a track where Hamlin is good; it is the track that defines his career legacy. He was born twelve miles away, grew up watching races here, and has converted that familiarity into more Cup victories at Richmond than any driver in history. The JGR short-track setup that swept the top of the qualifying sheet is built around Hamlin’s feedback over years of Richmond visits, and tonight he starts from the cleanest air position on the track. His tire conservation style — smooth on entry, late on the exit throttle, protecting the right-rear through the center — is specifically suited to an asphalt short track where the tire arc rewards patience over aggression. Leading points in 2026, he races freely tonight without bubble anxiety. At $10,800 he is the slate-high salary and the correct answer.
P1Qualifying pole — 128.012 mph
P210-lap practice average — 126.634 mph
HomeBorn 12 miles away — all-time Richmond Cup wins leader
$10,800DraftKings — slate-high, justified here
+320Race-day favorite — deserved
The long-run king at 126.812 mph, arriving off an Iowa win, P2 qualifying — the analytical anchor for tonight. Bell qualified second (127.770 mph, just 0.242 mph off Hamlin) and was fastest at every 10-lap practice interval tested tonight — a complete long-run sweep that is the clearest possible pre-race signal at a short track where the race is ultimately decided over 400 laps of tire management, not a single hot lap. He won at Iowa last Sunday and comes to Richmond with the confidence and mechanical momentum of a driver who is solving whatever track is in front of him. JGR’s short-track setup program has Bell as its most adaptable car — the driver most capable of translating engineering work into real-time handling advantages as the track rubbers up under the lights. Starting P2, he collects stage points from lap one, has zero adverse place-differential risk, and his only realistic outcome below a top-five is a mechanical failure or an incident not of his making. At $10,200 he is $600 under Hamlin and the second-safest salary on the board.
P2Qualifying — 127.770 mph
P1Every 10-lap practice interval — 126.812 mph avg
WWon Iowa last Sunday — momentum and confidence
$10,200DraftKings — $600 under Hamlin
+420Practice-backed second choice
P3 qualifying, third in long-run practice, HMS bringing all four cars into the top ten — the most underrated must-start on the board. Elliott qualified third (127.596 mph) and placed third on 10-lap practice averages (126.512 mph) — a clean P3 across both sessions that reflects a Hendrick Motorsports organization that arrived at Richmond tonight with a legitimate setup, not a reactionary adjustment. Elliott’s Richmond career numbers are elite: he has multiple top-fives here and his smooth, mechanical-grip-forward driving style translates directly to an asphalt short track where entry finesse matters more than bravado. He is also fighting for Chase position tonight — currently sitting inside the top ten in points but aware that New Hampshire and Daytona are the last two chances to bank points before the cutoff. That motivation sharpens performance, not the opposite. At $9,800 he is $1,000 under Hamlin for a car that is essentially as fast in race trim. In cash games, the Hamlin + Bell + Elliott three-car stack is the highest-confidence lineup structure on the board tonight.
P3Qualifying — 127.596 mph
3rd10-lap practice average — 126.512 mph
HMSAll four HMS cars in top 10 of qualifying
$9,800DraftKings — $1,000 under Hamlin
+550Chase bubble focus sharpens Elliott specifically
P4 qualifying, fifth-best long run, and a Richmond career record that is quietly one of the best in the active field — at $9,400. Logano qualified fourth (127.409 mph) and placed fifth on 10-lap practice averages (126.177 mph), confirming Penske arrived at Richmond with a legitimate setup and not just a fast qualifying trim. His Richmond career numbers in the NextGen era are better than the average fantasy roster implies: he has finished top-five in three of his last four visits here, consistently scores stage points, and races Richmond’s asphalt surface with a high-entry, late-brake style that actually suits the track’s mechanical grip characteristics. Penske typically trails JGR at short tracks by a small but measurable margin, and tonight that gap is visible in the qualifying and practice data — but the gap from P4 to P1 in qualifying is less than a single second. At $9,400 he is $1,400 cheaper than Hamlin and $800 cheaper than Elliott for a car that starts on the second row and has legitimate top-five Richmond track history behind it.
P4Qualifying — 127.409 mph
5th10-lap practice average — 126.177 mph
3/4Top-5 finishes in last 4 Richmond visits (NextGen era)
$9,400DraftKings — $1,400 under Hamlin for P4 start
+750Penske right there in qualifying parity
P5 qualifying, sixth-best long run, and a driver racing for his Chase life tonight — desperation produces elite effort at $9,200. Blaney qualified fifth (127.252 mph) and placed sixth on 10-lap practice averages (126.044 mph) — consistent across both metrics and inside the top six all day. The more important number is his points standing: Blaney is currently sitting on the Chase bubble, close enough to feel secure and close enough to feel threatened. That precise emotional state — where the driver knows a strong result tonight dramatically improves their postseason position — produces the kind of aggressive, no-hesitation racing that fantasy portfolios benefit from in the final stage. He has two more races (New Hampshire, Daytona) after tonight, and he knows it. At $9,200 he is $200 cheaper than Logano from one spot further back, which is thin value differentiation, but the stage-aggression upside separates them in GPP builds specifically. In cash, Logano at P4 is the cleaner call; in GPPs, Blaney’s bubble urgency is the differentiator.
P5Qualifying — 127.252 mph
6th10-lap practice average — 126.044 mph
BubbleChase position at stake — maximum race effort guaranteed
$9,200DraftKings — $200 under Logano, bubble upside the edge
+800Desperation adds floor to stage aggression
P7 qualifying, seventh in long-run, and JGR’s veteran Richmond setup knowledge at sub-$9K salary — the budget-conscious anchor. Truex qualified seventh (126.971 mph) and placed seventh on 10-lap practice averages (125.923 mph) — completely consistent across both sessions, confirming a car that is genuinely fast at Richmond without the single-lap heroics that separated the top two. Truex has deep Richmond data accumulated over his career and benefits directly from JGR’s organizational setup program, which means his baseline at tonight’s track is higher than his salary implies. He is not the play for lineups chasing a win — that is Hamlin or Bell — but for lineups that need a safe fifth or sixth starter with top-ten floor and stage-point upside, Truex at $8,900 is the most reliable budget option in the build. Starting P7 inside the top four rows, he faces no early-chaos exposure and can run his race from a clean, organized position all night.
P7Qualifying — 126.971 mph
7th10-lap practice average — 125.923 mph
JGRBenefits from organizational Richmond setup program
$8,900DraftKings — sub-$9K for a top-seven JGR car
+1100Safe floor, reasonable ceiling, correct price
P9 qualifying, P4 in long-run practice — the biggest qualifying-to-race-trim gap on the slate at a salary priced for his starting spot, not his race pace. Buescher qualified ninth (126.691 mph) and placed fourth on 10-lap practice averages (126.289 mph) — five positions better in race trim than the grid suggests, the largest qualifying-to-long-run improvement of any named driver on tonight’s slate. RFK’s short-track program has made measurable strides in 2026, and Buescher has been the car that shows up quietly in the practice data on mechanical-grip tracks. He is not a tier-one qualifying machine, but he is a tire conservation ace who benefits from cooler conditions — exactly tonight’s setup at Richmond under the lights. Starting P9, he starts outside the chaos of the front rows but inside the window where catching the leaders under green is realistic. At $8,400 he is the only driver inside the top five of long-run practice priced below $9,000. In lineups anchored at Hamlin + Bell at the top, Buescher solves the salary math while keeping confirmed race-trim speed at the bottom of the build.
P9Qualifying — biggest qual-to-long-run gap on the slate
4th10-lap practice average — 126.289 mph
RFKShort-track package meaningfully improved in 2026
$8,400DraftKings — only top-5 long-run car under $9K
+1800Long-run data says this price is significantly too long
P6 qualifying, eighth in long-run, HMS’s best alternative to Elliott when you want Hendrick exposure without paying Elliott’s premium — at $9,000. Byron qualified sixth (127.114 mph) and placed eighth on 10-lap practice averages (125.789 mph) — competitive but not matching Elliott or Buescher in race trim, which is exactly the GPP sleeper profile. Hendrick arrived at Richmond tonight with all four cars in the top ten of qualifying, and Byron is the third-best HMS result in the practice long-run, behind Elliott (3rd) and ahead of Larson (9th). He is the pivot when you want to stack Hamlin + Bell at the top, need to pay Logano or Blaney in the value tier, and can’t afford both Elliott ($9,800) and the rest of the lineup. At $9,000 he is $800 under Elliott for one spot worse in qualifying and five spots worse in long-run, which is a substantial discount for a marginal pace difference. GPP-primary, but usable in any format where the salary frees up something meaningful elsewhere.
P6Qualifying — all four HMS cars in top 10
8th10-lap practice average — 125.789 mph
$9,000DraftKings — $800 under Elliott for similar HMS exposure
HMSThird-best Hendrick long-run tonight, behind Elliott and ahead of Larson
+1200GPP pivot when Elliott is too expensive for the build
P12 qualifying, 13th in long-run, a Richmond career profile that outperforms his current salary, and RFK’s organizational short-track push visible in teammate Buescher’s data — at $7,800. Keselowski qualified 12th (126.270 mph) and placed 13th in long-run practice (124.994 mph) — not a top-ten car in either session, which is exactly how a true sleeper gets underpriced. His career Richmond numbers predate the NextGen era, but the organizational lift that has Buescher at fourth in long-run practice tonight is the same setup program Keselowski drives. At a track where track position from a higher starting number requires aggressive, pass-or-crash short-track moves, Keselowski has the experience and the aggression to race his way forward. At $7,800 he is the deepest salary-saver with a plausible top-12 path at this track. Strictly tournament-only — the variance is high and the floor is mid-pack — but in large-field GPPs where you need a contrarian build, Keselowski from P12 at Richmond is a name the field won’t be on.
P12Qualifying — starting position with passing upside
13th10-lap practice average — 124.994 mph
RFKSame organizational setup lift as Buescher (#4 long-run)
$7,800DraftKings — deepest salary saver with a Richmond story
GPPOnly — high variance, short-track aggression required
P10 qualifying, ninth in long-run practice, HMS fourth car at a track his three teammates all outperformed him today — at $10,400, the biggest salary mismatch on the slate. Larson qualified tenth (126.554 mph) and placed ninth in 10-lap practice averages (125.644 mph) — behind Elliott (P3 qual / 3rd long-run), Byron (P6 qual / 8th long-run), and Bowman (P19 qual) within the Hendrick organization. All four HMS cars qualified in the top 19, but tonight the data is unambiguous about the internal hierarchy: Elliott and Byron are the HMS cars running the best setup at Richmond, and Larson is the fourth. His 2026 season has been strong in aggregate, and the DraftKings pricing system reflects that — $10,400 is nearly the salary of a pole-sitter. At Richmond tonight, a P10 start with 9th-best long-run pace does not justify $10,400. The $600 savings moving from Larson to Elliott buys you two spots better in qualifying, three spots better in long-run practice, and a driver who is specifically motivated by Chase position tonight. The math does not work for Larson at this track at this price.
P10Qualifying — 4th best HMS car today
9th10-lap practice average — behind Elliott, Byron within team
$10,400DraftKings — near pole-sitter salary for P10 start
-$600Elliott costs $600 less and is 3 spots better in long-run
AvoidEvery Richmond metric says the price is wrong tonight
P13 qualifying, 12th in long-run practice, no Richmond short-track setup history at 23XI, and $9,000 salary that prices in results the data can’t support. Reddick qualified 13th (126.134 mph) and placed 12th in 10-lap practice averages (125.189 mph) — both metrics placing him outside the top dozen at a track where 23XI has no organizational short-track setup lineage. The organization has excelled at superspeedways and select intermediate tracks, but Richmond’s specific tire management and mechanical-balance demands require years of track-specific engineering data that 23XI simply has not accumulated yet. Starting P13 at a short track where passing is genuinely difficult, his realistic outcome distribution centers around a 10th–15th finish — not the top-five result his $9,000 salary implies. You can spend $9,000 on Logano (P4 qual / 5th long-run), which buys you 9 spots better on the grid and 7 spots better in long-run practice. There is no scenario where Reddick at $9,000 from P13 with 12th-best long-run pace is the correct choice over Logano at the same price from P4.
P13Qualifying — outside top dozen at a track where passing is hard
12th10-lap practice average — 125.189 mph
23XINo short-track setup lineage at Richmond specifically
$9,000DraftKings — same price as Byron, 7 spots worse in long-run
AvoidLogano at same price from P4 is objectively superior
2026 NASCAR Cup Series Standings After Race 23 (Iowa)
1stDenny Hamlin — 2026 points leader, 3 wins, Chase locked
2ndChristopher Bell — Iowa winner last week, building momentum
3rd–8thLogano, Byron, Buescher, Blaney — playoff-locked, racing for seeding
BubbleBlaney & Chastain among the drivers clinging to the cutline with 3 races left
Regular Season Finish Line
Tonight is Race 24 of 36. After Richmond, only New Hampshire (Aug 23) and the Daytona regular-season finale (Aug 29) remain before the 16-driver Chase field is set. That context transforms Stage 3 at every remaining regular-season race: drivers in positions 13–20 in points are making moves that have no equivalent in playoff races or early-season events. Track position at Richmond is not just a fantasy-scoring mechanism — it is a survival tool for a significant portion of the starting field. Expect maximum aggression on late-race restarts, late pit wall calls to grab track position, and an accident rate in Stage 3 meaningfully higher than a neutral-pressure Richmond event would produce. When building lineups, weight the top-five starting positions more heavily than usual: at a short track where passing is already difficult and the late-race field is behaving desperately, the drivers who start at the front and stay at the front are the ones most likely to lead laps, bank stage points, and finish where they started.
Short-Track Comparable Data (2026)
MartinsvilleWk 7: Blaney dominant, JGR competitive — similar package
BristolWk 9: Short-track aero data, tire wear reference
NWBWk 21: JGR strength confirmed in recent data
IowaWk 23: JGR sweeps — Bell + Hamlin + Gibbs top 3 qualifying
Starting Grid — Cook Out 400 at Richmond (36 cars, set by qualifying)
| Pos | Driver | Speed | Pos | Driver | Speed |
|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin (#11) | 128.012 | 19 | Alex Bowman (#48) | 124.645 |
| 2 | Christopher Bell (#20) | 127.770 | 20 | Michael McDowell (#34) | 124.512 |
| 3 | Chase Elliott (#9) | 127.596 | 21 | Carson Hocevar (#77) | 124.378 |
| 4 | Joey Logano (#22) | 127.409 | 22 | AJ Allmendinger (#16) | 124.244 |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney (#12) | 127.252 | 23 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (#47) | 124.112 |
| 6 | William Byron (#24) | 127.114 | 24 | Josh Berry (#21) | 123.978 |
| 7 | Martin Truex Jr. (#19) | 126.971 | 25 | Bubba Wallace (#23) | 123.845 |
| 8 | Ross Chastain (#1) | 126.834 | 26 | Daniel Suárez (#99) | 123.711 |
| 9 | Chris Buescher (#17) | 126.691 | 27 | Austin Dillon (#3) | 123.578 |
| 10 | Kyle Larson (#5) | 126.554 | 28 | JJ Yeley (#15) | 123.311 |
| 11 | Ty Gibbs (#54) | 126.400 | 29 | Chase Briscoe (#14) | 123.177 |
| 12 | Brad Keselowski (#6) | 126.270 | 30 | Justin Haley (#31) | 123.044 |
| 13 | Tyler Reddick (#45) | 126.134 | 31 | Noah Gragson (#10) | 122.912 |
| 14 | Austin Cindric (#2) | 125.981 | 32 | Zane Smith (#38) | 122.781 |
| 15 | Harrison Burton (#23†) | 125.812 | 33 | Erik Jones (#43) | 122.645 |
| 16 | Ryan Preece (#41) | 125.694 | 34 | Todd Gilliland (#38‡) | 122.512 |
| 17 | Connor Zilisch (#88) | 125.565 | 35 | Cole Custer (#4) | 122.378 |
| 18 | Corey LaJoie (#7) | 124.778 | 36 | Cody Ware (#51) | 121.811 |
Speeds in mph from Saturday afternoon’s single-lap qualifying session, Aug 15. †Harrison Burton listed as substitution entry; confirm against NASCAR.com before locking lineups. ‡Two entries share car numbers from different teams in the provisional list; verify against official NASCAR entry list. Confirm full entry list before finalizing DraftKings rosters.
Practice Long-Run Rankings (10-lap average, Aug 15)
| Rank | Driver | 10-Lap Avg | Qual Pos |
|---|
| 1 | Christopher Bell (#20) | 126.812 mph | P2 |
| 2 | Denny Hamlin (#11) | 126.634 mph | P1 (pole) |
| 3 | Chase Elliott (#9) | 126.512 mph | P3 |
| 4 | Chris Buescher (#17) | 126.289 mph | P9 |
| 5 | Joey Logano (#22) | 126.177 mph | P4 |
| 6 | Ryan Blaney (#12) | 126.044 mph | P5 |
| 7 | Martin Truex Jr. (#19) | 125.923 mph | P7 |
| 8 | William Byron (#24) | 125.789 mph | P6 |
| 9 | Kyle Larson (#5) | 125.644 mph | P10 |
| 10 | Ross Chastain (#1) | 125.512 mph | P8 |
| 11 | Ty Gibbs (#54) | 125.341 mph | P11 |
| 12 | Tyler Reddick (#45) | 125.189 mph | P13 |
| 13 | Brad Keselowski (#6) | 124.994 mph | P12 |
| 14 | Austin Cindric (#2) | 124.812 mph | P14 |
| 15 | Connor Zilisch (#88) | 124.645 mph | P17 |
Long-run rankings from Saturday afternoon practice. Note Buescher (P9 qual / P4 long-run) as the biggest qualifying-to-race-pace gap on tonight’s slate — five positions better in race trim than the grid suggests.
Race-Day Odds Board (Outright Winner)
| Driver | Odds | Start | Driver | Odds | Start |
|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +320 | P1 | Martin Truex Jr. | +1200 | P7 |
| Christopher Bell | +420 | P2 | William Byron | +1400 | P6 |
| Chase Elliott | +550 | P3 | Ross Chastain | +1800 | P8 |
| Joey Logano | +750 | P4 | Ty Gibbs | +2000 | P11 |
| Ryan Blaney | +800 | P5 | Chris Buescher | +2200 | P9 |
| Kyle Larson | +950 | P10 | Brad Keselowski | +3500 | P12 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1400 | P13 | Connor Zilisch | +4500 | P17 |
Odds as of Saturday afternoon, Aug 15, following qualifying; lines move through early evening and up to the 7:00 PM ET green flag — confirm before betting. Confirmed DraftKings salaries (top of the board): Hamlin $10,800 · Bell $10,200 · Larson $10,400 · Elliott $9,800 · Logano $9,400 · Blaney $9,200 · Reddick $9,000 · Byron $9,000 · Truex $8,900 · Gibbs $8,700 · Chastain $8,600 · Buescher $8,400 · Keselowski $7,800 · Cindric $7,600 · Bowman $7,400 · Zilisch $7,200 · Haley $6,800 · Hocevar $7,000 · McDowell $6,200 · Berry $6,500. Remaining salaries not confirmed in our sources before publication.