RaceDollar Tree 301 — Race 25 of 36
TrackNew Hampshire Motor Speedway — 1.058-mile oval
Date / TimeSun, Aug 23 · 2:00 PM ET
TVUSA Network
Length301 Laps · 318.46 mi · Stages: 70 / 185 / 301
Track Type1.058-mile flat oval · 12° turns · 750 HP package
Banking12° in turns · 2° on straights
Practice / QualCompleted Sat, Aug 22 — official qualifying data below
PoleTyler Reddick (#45) — 131.094 mph · Josh Berry P2 · William Byron P3
Wave 2 published Sun, Aug 23 — revised against official NASCAR qualifying results. Tyler Reddick took the pole at 131.094 mph, edging Josh Berry by .068 mph. William Byron starts third, Denny Hamlin fourth, and Christopher Bell sixth. The headline is the grid itself: Chase Elliott starts 29th, creating the slate’s largest place-differential ceiling, while Reddick and Berry must turn single-lap pace into the sustained tire management New Hampshire demands. This is the final traditional oval before next week’s Daytona regular-season finale. For last week’s race, see our Richmond picks; for what’s next, see the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona, or jump to the Weekly Picks Hub.
Track Profile
New Hampshire Motor Speedway — the Magic Mile — is a 1.058-mile oval that rewards a very specific type of driver. Its 12° turn banking is modest and the straights carry only 2°, leaving drivers with very little banking to lean on. Cars must rotate through the center without abusing the right-front tire, then leave the corner cleanly enough to keep speed down the long frontstretch. That makes mechanical balance, brake release, and tire conservation more valuable here than outright entry speed. A pole lap can prove a car has speed; it cannot by itself prove the car will be the best over a 60-lap green-flag run.
The 750 HP short-track package puts New Hampshire firmly in the mechanical-grip category. The cars move around as the surface takes rubber, and the preferred line can evolve from a tight bottom groove into a wider, more usable racetrack late in a run. That variability is why the drivers who can protect tires and communicate handling changes precisely tend to separate themselves in the final 100 laps. Qualifying gives us the immediate hierarchy today. Race trim, pit execution, and managing the final stage determine whether that hierarchy lasts.
Key Factors Today
There are three distinct fantasy decisions today. First: front-row exposure. Reddick and Berry begin in clean air, which is powerful at a flat track where passing becomes progressively harder as tires wear. Second: place differential. Elliott starts 29th and Joey Logano 21st, so both have a larger raw scoring runway than the pole contenders. The correct response is not to blindly chase every back-row starter; it is to favor the ones with a credible top-ten car behind the starting position. Third: stage points. A driver who begins inside the top six and holds the bottom lane can bank points in Stages 1 and 2 before a strategy swing ever changes the order.
This is the final conventional oval before Daytona makes the playoff picture chaotic. Teams on the Chase bubble know this is their last predictable chance to score a clean, conventional-race result. That increases the value of calm, repeatable cars and raises the risk on drivers who need to force the issue from deep in the field. The 301-lap distance also makes pit cycles meaningful: do not overreact to an early running order. A car that is ninth after 20 laps can still be the right long-run play if it protects tires and enters Stage 3 with a track-position path.
Race-day slate shape: Tyler Reddick is the pole anchor — 131.094 mph, clean air, and a prime opportunity to control Stage 1; William Byron is the balanced elite play — P3 in a proven front-running team car; Denny Hamlin is the short-track floor — P4 with the tire-management profile this track rewards; Josh Berry is the volatility value — P2 with a legitimate shot at early stage points; and Chase Elliott is the place-differential priority — P29 is too much scoring runway to ignore, but it is tournament exposure rather than an automatic cash lock. The official NASCAR live feed published the completed qualifying order; it did not publish an official multi-lap practice table, so this update does not invent one.
The pole, the fastest qualifying lap, and clean air on a track where the first driver to the bottom lane controls the race. Reddick earned the pole at 131.094 mph, only .068 mph ahead of Berry, but the difference between P1 and P2 at New Hampshire is larger than the stopwatch margin suggests. The leader picks the lane, dictates the opening restart, and gets first access to clean air on a flat track where following another car can overheat the front tires. Reddick’s task is simple: convert a single-lap win into Stage 1 control. He is not a no-risk cash play merely because he starts first — he carries no place-differential cushion — but the combination of pole, Toyota speed, and lead-lap potential makes him the clearest dominator candidate.
P1Pole — 131.094 mph
70Laps in Stage 1 to convert clean air into points
+.068mph over Berry for the pole
CeilingBest dominator path on the slate
P3 is the ideal blend of stage-point access and enough separation from the pole to retain a little upside. Byron qualified third at 130.981 mph, keeping the No. 24 inside the first two rows for every early restart. New Hampshire is not a track where a top-five car casually slices through traffic once the bottom groove is occupied. Byron is the balanced build: close enough to Reddick and Berry to challenge for the lead, but not carrying the all-or-nothing exposure of the front row. Hendrick also placed Larson ninth and Bowman tenth, giving Byron a stable organizational baseline rather than an isolated hot lap.
P3Qualifying — 130.981 mph
Front 2 rowsBest early-stage scoring access
HMSMultiple top-10 qualifiers
BuildCash-friendly elite anchor
P4, a tire-management-first driving style, and a JGR Toyota package that put three cars inside the top seven. Hamlin starts fourth after a 130.972-mph lap, essentially even with Byron on the sheet and only a tenth of a second off the pole. The Magic Mile rewards the exact skills Hamlin brings: conserving the right-front over a run, maintaining center-corner rotation, and making the race car better as the fuel load comes out. Bell starts sixth and Gibbs seventh, evidence that the JGR baseline is strong rather than a one-car outlier. Hamlin is the safest high-end non-pole exposure; he can score stage points without needing a heroic trip through traffic.
P4Qualifying — 130.972 mph
3JGR Toyotas inside top 7
TiresDriving style suits a worn Magic Mile
FloorReliable stage-point profile
P2 at 131.026 mph is not a fluke to dismiss; it is direct access to the same clean-air, stage-point script as the pole. Berry missed the pole by .068 mph and begins beside Reddick, which gives the No. 21 a real chance to win the launch, clear the corner, and flip the early dominator script. His value comes from lineup construction: most rosters gravitate to the pole winner or traditional high-salary names, while Berry has the same front-row track-position opportunity and less crowd certainty. This is not a blind all-format play; a P2 starter has almost no differential floor. It is, however, one of the best tournament pivots in the field.
P2Qualified at 131.026 mph
Front rowCan control first restart and Stage 1
FordBest Blue Oval qualifier
GPPPrimary Reddick leverage pivot
P6 with two JGR teammates surrounding him gives Bell the stable, efficient start that survives a long Magic Mile race. Bell qualified sixth at 130.555 mph. That is high enough to live in the early stage-point zone while avoiding the zero-differential exposure of the front row. His case is organizational and stylistic: JGR put Hamlin P4, Bell P6, and Gibbs P7, and Bell is one of the best drivers in the garage at adapting as a flat track changes over a long run. He is the preferred second Toyota for builds that want Reddick’s upside but still need a driver capable of closing the race rather than simply surviving the first stint.
P6Qualifying — 130.555 mph
JGRHamlin P4, Bell P6, Gibbs P7
Tire lifeFlat-track handling strength
BuildCash or tournament secondary anchor
P8 is a usable blend of track position and forward runway, with enough laps for a patient car to work into the top five. Blaney qualified eighth at 130.447 mph. He is not the obvious pole play and he does not have Elliott’s massive place-differential headline, which makes him the kind of steady mid-front driver that can get overlooked. New Hampshire rewards measured throttle work and keeping the car underneath the driver for an entire run; a P8 start gives Blaney the chance to avoid the deepest traffic while still collecting points as the race finds its rhythm. Use him where you want top-five equity without paying for the pole.
P8Qualifying — 130.447 mph
301Enough laps for a patient forward move
PenskeSolid top-10 baseline
FloorTop-five path without front-row risk
P29 is the slate’s largest credible place-differential runway. The risk is traffic; the upside is a score no front-row driver can match without leading nearly everything. Elliott’s 128.937-mph qualifying lap left him 29th on the grid, a startling result for a driver with the equipment and flat-track skill to finish far closer to the front. That creates a binary choice: cash players should respect the real chance that track position traps him outside the top 15, while tournament players should embrace the possibility that he advances 15–20 positions over 301 laps. Do not confuse this with a safe play; it is a high-ceiling differential bet. The path requires a clean opening stage, good pit execution, and enough long-run balance to pass cars without burning the right-front.
P29Largest elite-driver differential path
+20Possible gain with a top-10 finish
RiskTraffic and flat-track passing difficulty
GPPCeiling play, not automatic cash exposure
P10 provides a quiet front-half start in the same stable that put Byron third and Larson ninth. Bowman starts tenth after a 130.420-mph lap. That is not a headline number, which is precisely why he works as a deeper tournament piece. The No. 48 is close enough to the front to score a top-ten finish without needing a miraculous race, and the team-wide Hendrick qualifying baseline suggests the car should not be dismissed as a random P10. The ceiling is more modest than Elliott’s, but so is the execution burden.
P10Qualifying — 130.420 mph
HMSByron P3, Larson P9, Bowman P10
Top 10Clean, realistic finish path
GPPLower-owned balanced exposure
P21 is an uncomfortable starting spot, but it gives a proven flat-track driver enough differential to matter if the No. 22 finds long-run balance. Logano’s 129.949-mph lap only placed him 21st. That removes all of the early-stage safety that comes with his teammate Blaney’s P8 start, but it gives him a different fantasy case: a top-ten finish gains eleven positions. At a track that penalizes mistakes, his veteran racecraft and pit-road execution create a plausible path. Keep exposure tournament-only; qualifying says the floor is too low for a core cash play.
P21Qualifying — real differential opportunity
+11Position gain with a top-10 finish
RiskTraffic can consume the entire first stage
GPPVeteran contrarian build
P5 is impressive single-lap speed. It is also a near-zero-differential start at a flat oval where 301 laps of tire management are a different test. SVG qualified fifth at 130.860 mph and deserves credit for an excellent lap. But the fantasy issue is structural: from P5, he needs stage points, laps led, or a top-five finish just to avoid being passed by deeper starters who gain positions. His road-course strength does not automatically translate to a flat, worn-tire oval, and the short-track format leaves little room for a small handling miss. Use only as a controlled tournament bet on his qualifying speed; do not make him a core lineup piece over Hamlin, Bell, or Blaney.
P5Very little place-differential cushion
301Laps of tire-management uncertainty
RiskNeeds a near-perfect race to pay off
FadeNot a core oval build
JGR equipment helps, but P17 leaves Briscoe in the traffic band without the elite qualifying signal shown by the other three Toyotas. Briscoe begins 17th at 130.126 mph, behind Hamlin, Bell, and Gibbs. The JGR badge will attract attention, but the grid says this is the fourth Toyota in a group where the first three already have clearer stage-point or finish-position paths. At New Hampshire, a P17 starter needs more than a solid car; he needs a long-run handling edge or a strategy break to move through the field. Without official multi-lap practice data confirming that edge, the appropriate call is restraint.
P17Starts in the difficult traffic band
JGR 4thHamlin P4, Bell P6, Gibbs P7 ahead
UnknownNo official long-run table to prove race pace
FadePrefer clearer Toyota paths
What Changes After Today
New Hampshire is Race 25 of 36, and the next race is the regular-season finale at Daytona. That makes today the last chance for teams on the Chase bubble to solve their own fate on a non-superspeedway. Daytona can turn any clean points plan into a wreck-related disaster, so drivers close to the cutline have every incentive to race hard for stage points and finish position here. In fantasy terms, this increases the upside of cars starting in the first three rows and the volatility of drivers forced to pass through traffic.
Package and Track Priorities
FlatMechanical grip matters more than aero
TiresProtect the right-front over green-flag runs
Stages70 / 115 / 116 laps — early track position matters
DaytonaFinal regular-season race next week
Dollar Tree 301 Starting Grid — New Hampshire Motor Speedway
| Pos | Driver | Speed | Pos | Driver | Speed |
|---|
| 1 | Tyler Reddick (#45) | 131.094 | 19 | Noah Gragson (#4) | 130.011 |
| 2 | Josh Berry (#21) | 131.026 | 20 | Connor Zilisch (#88) | 129.993 |
| 3 | William Byron (#24) | 130.981 | 21 | Joey Logano (#22) | 129.949 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin (#11) | 130.972 | 22 | Carson Hocevar (#77) | 129.873 |
| 5 | Shane van Gisbergen (#97) | 130.860 | 23 | Bubba Wallace (#23) | 129.843 |
| 6 | Christopher Bell (#20) | 130.555 | 24 | AJ Allmendinger (#16) | 129.789 |
| 7 | Ty Gibbs (#54) | 130.496 | 25 | Brad Keselowski (#6) | 129.683 |
| 8 | Ryan Blaney (#12) | 130.447 | 26 | Austin Cindric (#2) | 129.661 |
| 9 | Kyle Larson (#5) | 130.443 | 27 | Riley Herbst (#35) | 129.648 |
| 10 | Alex Bowman (#48) | 130.420 | 28 | Austin Hill (#33) | 129.366 |
| 11 | Erik Jones (#43) | 130.354 | 29 | Chase Elliott (#9) | 128.937 |
| 12 | Ross Chastain (#1) | 130.309 | 30 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (#47) | 128.867 |
| 13 | Zane Smith (#38) | 130.278 | 31 | John H. Nemechek (#40) | 128.589 |
| 14 | Todd Gilliland (#34) | 130.278 | 32 | Cole Custer (#41) | 128.299 |
| 15 | Michael McDowell (#71) | 130.184 | 33 | Ty Dillon (#10) | 128.273 |
| 16 | Chris Buescher (#17) | 130.131 | 34 | Austin Dillon (#3) | 128.234 |
| 17 | Chase Briscoe (#19) | 130.126 | 35 | Daniel Suárez (#7) | 127.743 |
| 18 | Ryan Preece (#60) | 130.104 | 36 | Cody Ware (#51) | 127.718 |
Official qualifying order and speeds from NASCAR’s live qualifying feed for race 5627, captured Aug 23. NASCAR did not provide an official multi-lap practice results table through that feed at publication time; this article deliberately does not present unsupported long-run rankings or fabricated salary/odds data. Check your current fantasy contest lobby and sportsbook for live pricing before lock.