WAVE 2 UPDATE — Practice and qualifying complete (Sat, Jun 27). Starting grid confirmed, DraftKings salaries and post-qualifying odds integrated, and every tier refreshed against the sheet.
RaceToyota / Save Mart 350 — Race 18 of 36
TrackSonoma Raceway (Sonoma, CA) — 1.99-mile, 12-turn road course, ~160 ft of elevation change
Date / TimeSun, Jun 28 · 3:30 PM ET / 12:30 PM PT
TV / StreamTNT Sports · HBO Max
RadioPRN · SiriusXM NASCAR Radio (Ch. 90)
Length110 Laps · 218.9 mi
StagesS1: Laps 1–25 · S2: Laps 26–55 · Final: 56–110
Package750 HP road-course (same as COTA & Watkins Glen)
Practice / QualCompleted Sat, Jun 27
PoleTy Gibbs — 95.738 mph (1:14.829)
Outright Oddsvan Gisbergen −150 favorite · see board below
Wave 2 published Sat, Jun 27 — revised against the confirmed grid and practice sheet. The headline: Ty Gibbs on pole, Larson the long-run leader, van Gisbergen down to P6 but still the chalk, and Chase Elliott buried in 18th after a rough Saturday. Sonoma opens the 2026 In-Season Challenge. For the just-completed race, see our Coronado street-course picks; for what’s next, see Chicagoland, or jump to the full Weekly Picks Hub.
Track Profile
Sonoma Raceway is the most elevation-heavy road course on the NASCAR schedule. Tucked into the rolling hills of California wine country north of San Francisco, the 1.99-mile, 12-turn circuit climbs and falls roughly 160 feet across a lap, with blind crests, off-camber corners, and downhill braking zones that punish any driver who doesn’t know exactly where the track falls away beneath the car. NASCAR has run the full Sonoma layout (not the shorter carousel-bypass configuration of years past) since 2019, and the surface was repaved ahead of the 2024 race, keeping grip high and tire wear more manageable than the old worn pavement — which tends to lock in track position off qualifying. The Cup Series has visited Sonoma every year since 1989 (minus the 2020 COVID cancellation), so unlike last week’s blank-slate Coronado street race, this is a venue with decades of data.
The recent history tells the fantasy story. The last four Sonoma winners are four different drivers — Daniel Suárez (2022, his first career Cup win), Martin Truex Jr. (2023, led 51 of 110), Kyle Larson (2024), and Shane van Gisbergen (2025) — but the throughline is road-course pedigree and track-specific knowledge. Jeff Gordon’s record five Sonoma wins and Truex’s long mastery defined past eras; with Truex now retired, the wine-country crown is up for grabs among a deep group of modern road aces. The 750 HP road-course package applies here, the same configuration used at COTA and Watkins Glen, so 2026’s two prior road races are the freshest form guide.
Key Factors This Week
Sonoma rewards experience and punishes the oval-only crowd. The elevation changes create braking demands that exist nowhere else on the schedule. Drivers who can carry speed over blind crests and brake late into downhill corners gain multiple car-lengths a lap on those who lift early. That makes Sonoma one of the sharpest splits in the sport between true road-course specialists and the rest of the field — and because the repaved surface holds grip, qualifying position matters more than at most road courses. Track position off Saturday’s grid often dictates Sunday’s ceiling on this narrow, hard-to-pass layout.
Coronado reshuffled the board — and the road ace has ground to make up. Sunday’s debut street race in San Diego was chaos: Corey Heim scored a stunning first career Cup win in just his 13th start, Tyler Reddick punctured a left-front while battling for the lead and tumbled to 25th, and Shane van Gisbergen — the best road racer in the sport — crashed out and fell below the Chase cutline. That last point matters here: SVG led 97 of 110 laps to win this race a year ago and arrives racing to lock up a playoff berth. He qualified sixth on Saturday — the first time he has failed to win the pole for a Cup road course — but a motivated favorite starting on row three is exactly the kind of anchor you want.
The In-Season Challenge adds a layer of intrigue. Sonoma opens the 2026 NASCAR In-Season Challenge — a 32-driver, single-elimination bracket worth $1 million that trims the field 32→16→8→4→2 over five races and crowns its champion at the Brickyard 400 on July 26. Seeding came from the points standings after Pocono: Reddick is the No. 1 seed, Hamlin No. 2, Blaney No. 3, Elliott No. 4. The bracket has no bearing on the championship, but as 2025 proved, it changes how rivals race each other — head-to-head survival adds an extra reason for marginal drivers to take risks. It also marks the start of TNT Sports’ portion of the schedule.
Betting & grid note. Post-qualifying, van Gisbergen is the clear chalk at −150 despite his P6 start, with Tyler Reddick and rookie Connor Zilisch the co-second choices at +750. Kyle Larson was the big riser — his P3 start and class-best long-run pace compressed him from +1200 to roughly +550 — while Ryan Blaney drifted from +1200 to +2800 after qualifying only 15th. Pole-sitter Ty Gibbs (+2000), Chris Buescher (+1900), Michael McDowell (+2000), and AJ Allmendinger (+3300) headline the value tier. The full odds board and qualifying grid are in the Practice & Qualifying section below.
Wave 2 published Sat, Jun 27 — revised against practice (Blaney fastest single lap at 94.501 mph; Larson best 10-lap average at 93.577 mph) and qualifying (Ty Gibbs pole, 95.738 mph). Biggest moves: Wave-1 must-start Chase Elliott crashes M→X after practice P19 and qualifying P18; Ty Gibbs promoted V→M off the pole; Ryan Blaney flips X→S as the top place-differential dart (fastest in practice, starts P15); and McDowell (P4) and Chastain (P5) jump to Value on front-of-field track position. SVG rolls off P6 but stays the −150 chalk. Daniel Suárez (past Sonoma winner, +6000) drops off the formal board to a deep-dart mention.
Down to P6 on the grid — and still the clearest anchor on the board. For the first time in his Cup road-course career, SVG failed to win the pole, qualifying sixth after topping the opening group. It barely dents the case. He owns the most dominant Sonoma performance in track history (won from the pole in 2025 and led 97 of 110 laps), all seven of his career Cup wins are on road or street courses, and he arrives on a five-race road-course winning streak — one shy of Jeff Gordon’s record six straight. Add the urgency of sitting below the Chase cutline after his Coronado crash and you have a motivated favorite the books still make the −150 chalk. He carries the slate’s top DraftKings salary at $11,500, and even from row three his dominator ceiling is unmatched. Lock him in.
−150Clear outright favorite
P6Qualifying start (topped his group)
$11,500Highest DraftKings salary on the slate
97/110Laps led winning 2025 Sonoma (track record)
5Straight road-course wins (1 shy of Gordon)
The hometown hero backed it up with the best car in race trim — the safest cash anchor of the week. Sonoma is Larson’s home race (he grew up in nearby Elk Grove), and Saturday went to script: he qualified P3 and posted the best 10-consecutive-lap average of practice at 93.577 mph, the clearest race-trim edge in the field. That combination — front-row-adjacent track position plus class-best long-run pace — is why the books slashed him from +1200 to roughly +550. He’s a two-time Sonoma winner (2021, 2024) and just podiumed at Coronado to sit fourth in points. From P3 he can control the race and bank the laps-led and stage points that decide fantasy weeks. A premium DraftKings salary, but the cleanest anchor on the board.
P3Qualifying start
93.577Best 10-lap practice average (race-trim best)
+550Bet up from +1200 post-qualifying
2xSonoma winner (2021, 2024)
HomeElk Grove, CA native · 4th in points
The promotion of the week: our Wave-1 value play won the pole and vaults into the must-start tier. Gibbs was fastest in qualifying at 95.738 mph (1:14.829), edging Carson Hocevar by a razor-thin 0.025s for his first pole of 2026 and his first at Sonoma. He backed it with a P6 practice lap, so the race pace matches the single-lap speed. At a track where the narrow, hard-to-pass layout makes track position king, the pole is worth its weight in fantasy gold — clean air, stage-point control, and dominator upside from the front. He was already a rising road ace (P4 at COTA, led late at Watkins Glen before SVG ran him down) and sits fifth in points. At a value-priced DraftKings salary of $9,100, the pole-sitter is a lineup cornerstone. +2000 to win is live.
POLE95.738 mph (1:14.829) — by 0.025s
$9,100DraftKings — bargain for the pole-sitter
+2000Live outright number
P6Practice — race pace confirms the speed
V→MPromoted from the Wave 1 value tier
Held as a must-start — now with a place-differential kicker off a quiet qualifying lap. Reddick qualified only P11, but the speed is unmistakable: he ran third in practice at 94.340 mph, so he starts deeper than he’ll run. That gap is a gift in fantasy — place-differential points on top of a genuine top-five car. He still leads the championship (716, +8 on Hamlin) despite his Coronado left-front puncture, won the 2026 COTA opener leading 58 of 95, and owns road wins at COTA, Road America, and the Indy road course. As the No. 1 In-Season Challenge seed and a +750 co-second favorite (DraftKings $10,500), he has every reason to carve forward. Start him with confidence.
P11Start — place-differential upside
94.340Practice P3 — pace says he starts too deep
+750Co-2nd favorite · DK $10,500
1st2026 points leader · #1 In-Season seed
COTA2026 winner — led 58/95
Promoted from sleeper to value on a front-two-rows start — the best track-position bargain on the slate. McDowell qualified P4, lining up ahead of every road ace not named Larson or Hocevar, and at a passing-limited track that grid slot is real, bankable track position. His road-course body of work is quietly excellent — runner-up here in 2024, P4 in 2025, and fifth at COTA in March — and the Spire No. 71 has legitimate pace. DraftKings priced him at $9,300, a discount for a car that starts fourth, and +2000 gives him live outright equity. This is the leverage play of the value tier.
P4Qualifying start — front two rows
$9,300DraftKings — underpriced for the grid slot
+2000Live outright number
2nd2024 Sonoma runner-up · P4 in 2025
S→VPromoted from the Wave 1 sleeper tier
Promoted to value on the best salary-to-track-position ratio on the board. Chastain qualified P5 — and at just $7,400 on DraftKings he is by far the cheapest driver starting inside the top five, the definition of a leverage play. He runs the same Trackhouse road-course equipment that makes van Gisbergen so dominant, finished fifth here in 2024, and won Stage 1 at COTA earlier this year before a late wheel issue. His aggressive-but-controlled style fits Sonoma’s narrow layout, and from row three he can hold track position and pounce if cautions shuffle the field. At +5000 he’s pure tournament leverage given where he starts.
P5Qualifying start
$7,400Cheapest top-five starter on DraftKings
+5000GPP leverage off the grid slot
TrackhouseSVG’s road stable · P5 Sonoma 2024
S→VPromoted from the Wave 1 sleeper tier
A sneaky-good road racer with a runner-up here and strong recent Sonoma results. McDowell finished second at Sonoma in 2024 (inheriting the spot when Truex ran dry, but running up front all day) and fourth in 2025, and he added a fifth at COTA in March — the kind of body of work that gets underpriced relative to its output. Now in the Spire No. 71 with legitimate road-course pace, he profiles as a classic Sonoma sleeper: likely a mid-tier salary, with a real top-10 floor and a pile of place-differential points if he starts deeper in the field than his pace deserves.
2nd2024 Sonoma runner-up
P42025 Sonoma · P5 COTA 2026
SpireNo. 71 road-course pace
ValueChronically underpriced on roads
TBDOdds TBD · DK TBD (Wave 2)
A past Sonoma winner whose win equity here outruns his likely price. Suárez won at Sonoma in 2022 — the first career Cup victory of his life, his “Win Numero Uno” — and the memory of that breakthrough at this exact track makes him a meaningful tournament differential. Now in the Spire No. 7, he brings road-course comfort and a proven Sonoma ceiling to a sleeper-tier salary. He’s volatile week to week, but on a track where he’s already stood in victory lane, his upside is higher than his price is likely to suggest — a smart low-owned dart.
2022Sonoma winner (first career Cup win)
SpireNo. 7 Chevrolet
RoadComfortable turning both ways
DiffLow-owned tournament leverage
TBDOdds TBD · DK TBD (Wave 2)
Strong recent Sonoma form in van Gisbergen’s road-course stable. Chastain finished fifth at Sonoma in 2024 and consistently maximizes track position on the narrow layout with his aggressive-but-controlled style. He drives the same Trackhouse equipment that makes SVG so dominant on road courses, and he showed road speed early in 2026 by winning Stage 1 at COTA before a late wheel issue ruined his finish. A reliable, lower-owned sleeper with a top-five ceiling on the right day — especially if cautions shuffle the field and his strategy stays clean.
P52024 Sonoma finish
COTAWon Stage 1 in 2026
TrackhouseSVG’s road-course stable
Track PosMaximizes Sonoma’s narrow layout
TBDOdds TBD · DK TBD (Wave 2)
Red-hot and second in points — but road courses are the softest spot on an elite résumé. Hamlin is the story of the summer: a Michigan win, a multi-race surge, and a points gap on Reddick shaved to just eight after a steady 14th at Coronado. That momentum will make him popular and expensive this week. But Sonoma specifically is where his game dips — road courses have long been his weakest discipline, and he can grind out a quiet top-15 without ever threatening for the win. His dominator ceiling here is capped relative to the true road aces, so paying a premium for him is poor expected value. Fade at the inflated price and reallocate to a specialist; reassess only if he flashes real speed in qualifying.
2nd2026 points (708, −8 on Reddick)
14thCoronado last week
RoadSoftest discipline on his résumé
PremiumLikely overpriced — capped ceiling
TBDOdds TBD · DK TBD (Wave 2)
Third in points and a weekly DFS staple, but the road-course results don’t justify the price. Blaney is third in the standings (583) and a popular name every week, which keeps his ownership and salary high. But he openly doesn’t consider himself a road-course expert, and the No. 12’s body of work backs that up — he was muscled back to eighth late at COTA in March after restarting up front, a pattern of banking stage points without contending for the win. He’ll likely be solid, not special, and at a top-tier price on a track that rewards specialists, a “solid” projection is poor expected value. Fade toward a cheaper road ace.
3rd2026 points (583) — popular/expensive
P8COTA 2026 — faded late from the front
FloorSelf-described non-road specialist
CapCapped ceiling — poor EV at price
TBDOdds TBD · DK TBD (Wave 2)
A champion’s pedigree and name value, but his recent road-course form lags his reputation. Logano carries a Sonoma win on his résumé (back in 2009) and the brand equity of a multi-time series champion, which means he’ll be priced on reputation rather than recent road results. But Team Penske’s road-course program has trailed the Chevrolet and Toyota road aces in this era, and Sonoma’s elevation and limited passing don’t play to his strengths. Treat this as a Wave 1 lean to revisit after qualifying: if he flashes genuine practice speed Saturday, reassess — otherwise there are better road options at the same salary.
2009Lone Sonoma win — long ago
PenskeRoad program trails the aces
NamePriced on reputation > recent form
LeanRevisit after qualifying
TBDOdds TBD · DK TBD (Wave 2)
Key Numbers to Know
1.99 mi12-turn road course · ~160 ft elevation change
110Laps (218.9 miles)
25/55/110Stage ends (S1 / S2 / Final)
750 HPRoad-course package
Reference Marks
97/110SVG led most ever winning 2025 Sonoma
5Jeff Gordon’s record Sonoma wins (led 92 in 2004)
4Different winners last 4 years (Suárez/Truex/Larson/SVG)
2024Most recent repave — high grip, low wear
Last Week — Coronado (Race 17) Recap
Corey Heim scored a shocking first career Cup win in just his 13th start, holding off the field on the debut San Diego street circuit ahead of his planned full-time 23XI move in 2027. Bubba Wallace finished second and Kyle Larson third, with Zane Smith and AJ Allmendinger completing the top five. Tyler Reddick punctured a left-front while battling for the win and crashed to 25th; Shane van Gisbergen crashed out and slipped below the Chase cutline; Denny Hamlin salvaged 14th to pull within eight points of Reddick.
2026 Cup Points Standings (Top 5, after Coronado — Race 17 of 36)
| Pos | Driver | Pts | Gap |
|---|
| 1 | Tyler Reddick (#45) | 716 | Leader |
| 2 | Denny Hamlin (#11) | 708 | −8 |
| 3 | Ryan Blaney (#12) | 583 | −133 |
| 4 | Kyle Larson (#5) | 536 | −180 |
| 5 | Ty Gibbs (#54) | 535 | −181 |
Note: Chase Elliott slipped to sixth after Coronado. Road-course ace Shane van Gisbergen now sits below the Chase cutline following his crash, while Ryan Preece climbed back onto the playoff bubble — raising the stakes for the specialists at a track SVG just dominated. Standings are post-Coronado; confirm against NASCAR.com’s official numbers before setting lineups.
In-Season Challenge — Round 1 (Sonoma)
Sonoma opens the 32-driver, $1 million In-Season Challenge bracket (32→16→8→4→2), seeded off the post-Pocono standings: Reddick is the No. 1 seed, Hamlin No. 2, Blaney No. 3, Elliott No. 4. The bracket runs Sonoma → Chicagoland (Jul 5) → Atlanta (Jul 12) → North Wilkesboro (Jul 19) → the Brickyard 400 Champions Round (Jul 26). It doesn’t affect the championship, but head-to-head survival changes how rivals race — another reason to expect aggression from drivers fighting to advance.
What Separates Sonoma
No other road course on the schedule has Sonoma’s elevation profile. The blind crests and downhill braking zones reward track-specific knowledge that only comes from repetition at this exact circuit — which is why Larson’s home-track edge is real and why aces like van Gisbergen and Elliott separate from the oval-first crowd. For fantasy, that makes Sonoma one of the most predictable road courses at the top (the specialists are nearly always must-starts) while staying wide open in the middle tier, where elevation-specific skill decides who climbs and who fades. There is no cleanly published all-time race-average-speed record at Sonoma — caution counts swing it — so the laps-led and win marks above are the records worth citing.
Practice and qualifying run Saturday, June 27. Updated picks with the full starting grid, practice long-run notes, confirmed DraftKings salaries, opening odds, and post-qualifying consensus will publish in our Wave 2 update.
Road-course qualifying matters more at Sonoma than almost anywhere else: the narrow 1.99-mile layout offers limited passing room, so track position off Saturday’s grid often dictates Sunday’s ceiling. Watch which specialists — van Gisbergen, Larson, Elliott, Gibbs — find single-lap speed, and whether the 750 HP package and the 2024 repave keep tire wear low enough to lock in the front rows. Practice long-run pace will tell us whether the dominators can stretch tires through the 25- and 30-lap stage segments or whether strategy and cautions blow the race open. Lock no lineups until you’ve seen the practice sheet — we’ll fold the grid, long-run notes, and confirmed salaries and odds into the Wave 2 update.