Race Week — Updated
April 12, 2026
12 min read
Fantasy NASCAR Picks This Week: Food City 500 at Bristol
Ryan Blaney stole the pole with a massive practice-to-qualifying leap (15.101s / 127.064 mph), but Kyle Larson’s long-run practice trajectory (18th at 10 laps → 2nd at 30 laps) keeps him as the consensus betting favorite. Updated with full qualifying grid, practice long-run averages, penalties, and post-qualifying expert consensus.
RaceFood City 500 — Race 8 of 36
TrackBristol Motor Speedway — 0.533-mile concrete high-banked oval
Date / TimeSun, Apr 12 · 3:00 PM ET (broadcast on FS1)
TV / StreamFS1 · HBO Max · FOX Sports App
Length500 Laps · 266.5 mi
StagesS1: Laps 1–125 · S2: Laps 126–250 · Final: 251–500
Tire Sets12 dry (10 race + 1 qual carryover + 1 practice) · 4 wet
HP Package750 HP (first Bristol race under new package, up from 670)
PoleRyan Blaney — 15.101s / 127.064 mph (13th career pole)
Weather80–83°F · Mostly sunny · 0% rain chance
Purse$11,233,037
For the Round of 16 elimination night race at Bristol, see our Bass Pro Shops Night Race picks.
Track Profile
Bristol Motor Speedway is NASCAR’s most iconic short track — a 0.533-mile concrete bullring with steep 24–28° banking that creates some of the most intense racing on the schedule. Known as “Thunder Valley” and “The Last Great Colosseum,” Bristol packs 162,000 seats around a half-mile track where 37 cars battle bumper-to-bumper for 500 laps. The all-concrete surface is unique on the Cup schedule and produces a racing style unlike any other venue — heavy braking, aggressive restarts, and relentless attrition from wall contact.
The key variable at Bristol is tire wear. The concrete surface is extremely abrasive, and cars that are fast on fresh tires (short runs) may fade dramatically on long green-flag runs. Crew chiefs must decide whether to set up for short-run speed (capitalizing on restarts) or long-run endurance. This split creates fantasy value mismatches — a driver who qualifies well and dominates early may fall off the cliff on tire wear, while a driver who starts mid-pack with a long-run car can quietly climb into the top-5 over the final 150 laps.
Key Factors This Week
This is the first Bristol race under the new 750 HP short-track package (up from 670 HP in 2025), combined with completely redesigned Goodyear tire compounds (D-5276 left / D-5278 right). Tyler Reddick noted “a lot of rubber went down today, honestly — more than we’ve seen in the past,” and with 80°F+ race-day temperatures the track will continue to rubber up through 500 laps, accelerating tire degradation.
Saturday Update: Ryan Blaney flagged groove migration as the race’s defining variable: “Tomorrow, we’re going to be everywhere, because the top lane is going to come in tomorrow, and that’s going to be completely different from what you need to run the bottom.” PJ1 traction compound on the bottom dominated Saturday’s sessions, but crew chiefs expect the preferred lane to shift upward as PJ1 wears away and rubber builds in the upper groove. Christopher Bell captured the uncertainty: “Bristol’s been throwing the sink at everybody. Now we get the package change, the engine change and tire change all at once.”
Penalties: Five cars failed pre-race inspection twice. Kyle Larson (#5), Ross Chastain (#1), Cole Custer (#41), Chad Finchum (#66), and Michael McDowell (#71) all had their car chief/engineer ejected and lost pit stall selection. Larson and McDowell are among the top contenders affected.
Alex Bowman returned after four-race absence due to vertigo — qualified P27, was competitive in practice (5th at 10-lap, 3rd at 15-lap averages). 37-car field (36 charter + 1 open: Finchum #66). Radio: PRN · SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Ch. 90.
Quick Reference Picks (Saturday Updated)
Must-Start #1
Kyle Larson
Expert consensus pick #1. Starts P8, but best 30-lap practice avg (2nd). Crew chief ejected — still the favorite at +325 Caesars
Must-Start #2
Denny Hamlin
Expert consensus pick to win (RotoWire, DK Network, Covers, PredictEm). Starts P11, long-run practice improving 22nd→10th. $11,000 DK
Must-Start #3
Ty Gibbs
Starts P5 · best green-to-long-run delta (+1.07) in entire field · $9,500 DK — $2,000 cheaper than Larson
Value Play
Carson Hocevar
Starts P10 · $8,000 DK · consensus mid-tier pick · odds shortened from +3000→+2000 FanDuel
Sleeper
Michael McDowell
Practice sleeper: top-3 from 20 laps onward · starts P19 · engineer ejected but long-run speed is elite
Fade
William Byron
Qualified P34 at $10,000 DK — would need historic position differential · zero laps led in NextGen Bristol era
3 NextGen Bristol wins · 912 laps led in last 5 concrete races · defending winner · starts P8
Larson’s Bristol dominance in the NextGen era is staggering. Three wins in six concrete races, including leading 411 of 500 laps last spring and 462 of 500 laps in the Fall 2024 Night Race. His 912 laps led across the last five concrete Bristol races dwarfs everyone else in the field. The 31-race winless streak in 2026 hasn’t shaken experts’ confidence at this specific track — every major source lists him as a core play.
Saturday Update: Qualified P8 (15.192s) — mid-pack on single laps but his long-run practice trajectory is the most bullish data point of the weekend. He was 18th in 10-lap averages but climbed to 2nd-best over 30 laps, suggesting his Hendrick Chevrolet is built to peak late in runs — exactly what matters over 500 laps on a tire-eating surface. His car chief was ejected and he lost pit stall selection after failing pre-race inspection twice, but DraftKings Network still ranks him #2 in DFS at $11,500. Consensus betting favorite at +325 (Caesars) despite the penalty.
P8Starting Position (15.192s)
2nd30-Lap Practice Average (up from 18th at 10-lap)
912Laps Led (last 5 concrete races)
+325Odds (Caesars · $11,500 DK)
4 career Bristol wins · 3.4 avg finish in clean races · expert consensus pick to win · starts P11
Hamlin has four career Bristol wins (two in the NextGen era) and a 3.4 average finish in clean Bristol races, excluding only the Fall 2025 wheel issue anomaly. His elite tire management skills become even more valuable with the new Goodyear compound. At
Martinsville, he led 292 of 400 laps and won both stages before losing on strategy to Elliott — the raw speed is undeniable.
Saturday Update: Qualified P11 (15.225s) and his practice long-run trajectory mirrors his classic tire-management style — 22nd at 10 laps improving steadily to 10th at 30 laps. The expert consensus pick to win from RotoWire, DraftKings Network, Covers.com, SBGGlobal, and PredictEm. DraftKings Network ranks him #1 in DFS at $11,000. Selected by more expert outlets than any other driver. His ability to manage the groove transition from PJ1 bottom to rubbered-up top will be the key to his race.
P11Starting Position (15.225s)
10th30-Lap Practice Avg (up from 22nd at 10-lap)
4Career Bristol Wins
+500Odds (Caesars · $11,000 DK)
Hottest driver in NASCAR · 5 straight top-6 finishes · 440 laps led at Bristol NextGen · starts P5
Gibbs is the hottest driver in NASCAR with five consecutive top-6 finishes in 2026. He has four top-10s in his last five Bristol starts and 440 laps led at Bristol in the NextGen era — second only to Hamlin. SportsLine calls him a “must-roster” and iFantasyRace ranks him as their top Bristol speed play in high-tire-wear races. He’s still seeking his first Cup win in 127+ starts.
Saturday Update: Qualified P5 (15.164s) — Toyota placed four cars in the top five with Gibbs among them. The key metric: Gibbs leads the entire field with a +1.07 green-to-long-run delta, meaning he gets faster relative to the field as tire wear builds. At $9,500 DK — $2,000 cheaper than Larson — he is the single best DFS value play in the elite tier. DraftKings Network ranks him 4th behind Hamlin, Larson, and Bell. Three straight top-6 finishes on tire-wear tracks this season confirm his Bristol ceiling.
P5Starting Position (15.164s)
+1.07Green-to-Long-Run Delta (best in field)
$9,500DK Salary ($2,000 less than Larson)
+750Odds (FanDuel · shortening)
Best floor in the field · never finished worse than 10th in NextGen Bristol · Fall 2025 winner · starts P14
Bell is the most consistent Bristol driver in the NextGen era with a 5.4 average finish across the last five concrete races — he has never finished worse than 10th in that stretch. He won the Fall 2025 Night Race and has six top-10s in eight Bristol starts. His high floor (worst finish: 10th) makes him the safest play in cash game formats.
Saturday Update: Qualified P14 (15.261s) — further back than expected for a JGR car. Practice was more concerning: Bell struggled badly, ranking 12th at 10 laps but deteriorating to 28th at 20 laps before recovering slightly to 16th at 30 laps. His NextGen Bristol floor (never worse than 10th) is elite insurance, but the practice trajectory is a yellow flag for dominator upside. DraftKings Network ranks him 3rd in DFS at $10,500 — trust the historical floor but temper ceiling expectations. Bell himself noted the unknowns: “Bristol’s been throwing the sink at everybody.”
P14Starting Position (15.261s)
16th30-Lap Practice Avg (struggled mid-run)
5.4NextGen Bristol Avg Finish (best in field)
+650Odds (DraftKings · $10,500 DK)
Martinsville winner · 2 runner-up Bristol finishes in Gen-7 · starts P18
Fresh off his
Martinsville win (beat Hamlin on strategy), Elliott has two runner-up Bristol finishes in the Gen-7 era and has finished top-8 in six of his last seven Bristol runs. The knock: he’s never led more than 5 laps in any Gen-7 Bristol start, capping his dominator ceiling.
Saturday Update: Qualified P18 (15.285s) and didn’t complete enough consecutive laps in practice to register a 30-lap average — a potential red flag for long-run setup confidence. His Martinsville momentum is real but the Saturday data doesn’t confirm race-day speed. At +1300 FanDuel and $9,700 DK, he’s a consistency play rather than a dominator play: trust the top-8 Bristol floor, but don’t expect him to lead laps.
P18Starting Position (15.285s)
N/A30-Lap Practice Avg (insufficient laps)
6 of 7Top-8 Finishes (last 7 Bristol starts)
+1300Odds (FanDuel · $9,700 DK)
Gen-7 Bristol winner (2022 Night Race) · 169 laps led · elite DFS value · starts P7
Buescher is the only driver in his DraftKings salary group with a Gen-7 Bristol win (2022 Night Race, where he led 169 laps). All three RFK Racing cars are currently in the Chase picture. He consistently qualifies mid-pack but moves forward on race day.
Saturday Update: Qualified P7 (15.190s) — the biggest practice-to-qualifying leap of any driver with a 0.483-second improvement (he was 36th in practice but 7th in qualifying). That gap between practice and qualifying setups suggests RFK held back race trim during practice. Experts recommend him as a Group D winner at +200 — the only driver in that DK group with a Bristol Gen-7 win.
P7Starting Position (up from 36th in practice)
0.483sPractice-to-Qualifying Gain (largest in field)
169Laps Led in 2022 Bristol Win
+3000Odds · Group D winner +200
Best mover in the field · 14.3 avg finish from 21.0 avg start · Clash winner · starts P17
Preece is a short-track specialist by nature who won the Clash at Bowman Gray. His place-differential at Bristol is one of the best in the field: he averages a 14.3 finish despite a 21.0 average start — gaining nearly 7 positions on race day.
Saturday Update: Qualified P17 (15.282s) — right in his typical qualifying range, setting up his usual position-gain pattern. As one of three drivers who participated in Goodyear’s November Bristol tire test (along with Bowman and Wallace), he has setup knowledge that other teams are finding for the first time this weekend. The RFK qualifying gains across all three cars (Buescher P7, Keselowski P21, Preece P17) suggest strong organizational preparation.
P17Starting Position (15.282s)
14.3Avg Finish at Bristol (gains ~7 spots)
~$7,500DK Salary
TestedGoodyear Nov Bristol Tire Test Driver
Practice sleeper of the weekend · top-3 from 20 laps onward · starts P19
McDowell is the ultimate safe floor play at Bristol. He has finished in the top 15 in six of his last seven Bristol races with approximately an 11th average finish — remarkable consistency for a driver at his salary.
Saturday Update: McDowell was the sleeper of Saturday practice: consistently top-3 from 20 laps onward (8th at 10-lap, 5th at 15-lap, 3rd at 20-lap, 2nd at 25-lap, 3rd at 30-lap). That long-run trajectory is elite company alongside Blaney and Larson. Qualified P19 (15.291s). His engineer was ejected after failing inspection twice, which hurts race-day adjustments, but the car’s raw long-run pace speaks for itself. He sits just 9 points below Daniel Suárez for the final Chase spot, adding extra motivation at ~$7,100 DK.
P19Starting Position (15.291s)
3rd30-Lap Practice Average (top-3 from 20+ laps)
6 of 7Top-15 Finishes (last 7 Bristol starts)
~$7,100DK Salary (budget sleeper)
P3 at Bristol last fall · tire test data advantage · starts P12
Wallace finished 3rd at Bristol last fall, and new crew chief Charles Denike has built race-winning trucks at Bristol. He was one of three drivers who participated in Goodyear’s November Bristol tire test — a major data advantage with brand-new compounds.
Saturday Update: Qualified P12 (15.231s) and showed strong practice consistency: 6th in 10-lap averages, 7th at 15-lap, 7th at 20-lap, and 6th at both 25-lap and 30-lap averages. His consistent positioning across all run lengths (never outside the top 7) suggests a well-balanced setup. Crew chief Denike framed the race’s central question: “It’s how quickly the lane can move up, when the top takes some rubber.” The 23XI team’s tire test data gives Wallace an edge that most competitors don’t have in predicting groove migration. At +3300 (Caesars) and ~$8,500 DK, he’s a legit ceiling play.
P12Starting Position (15.231s)
6th30-Lap Practice Average (consistent all run lengths)
TestedGoodyear Nov Bristol Tire Test Driver
+3300Odds (Caesars · ~$8,500 DK)
Back from vertigo · competitive practice (5th at 10-lap, 3rd at 15-lap) · starts P27
Bowman returned to competition after a four-race absence due to vertigo that struck at COTA on March 1. He won the 2025 Bristol pole (128.675 MPH) and had top-10 finishes in both 2024 Bristol races.
Saturday Update: Qualified P27 (15.368s) — well off the qualifying pace, but his practice numbers tell a different story. Bowman was 5th in 10-lap averages and 3rd in 15-lap averages, showing the Hendrick equipment has genuine speed. “I’m a racecar driver, so you tell me I’m clear and I’m going to go do it,” Bowman said. “Yeah, it’s probably the worst place possible to come back to.” He was also one of three Goodyear tire test participants in November. The P27 start limits floor but his practice speed makes him a tournament dart throw at +5000.
P27Starting Position (15.368s)
3rd15-Lap Practice Average (5th at 10-lap)
TestedGoodyear Nov Bristol Tire Test Driver
+5000Odds (rust + start position discount)
4 wins in 7 races in 2026 · starts P2 — but avg Bristol running position is just 20.16
Despite his historic four-win 2026 start and 82-point championship lead, Bristol is Reddick’s worst track by a wide margin: zero top-10s in his last seven starts, a 20.5 average finish in the NextGen era, and only 7 laps led across six concrete races.
Saturday Update: Qualified P2 (15.124s, just 0.023s behind Blaney’s pole) — his best Bristol qualifying ever. His practice long-run data showed late-run improvement (13th at 10-lap rising to 5th at 30-lap), which is more encouraging than any previous Bristol weekend. The CBS Sports/SportsLine model still fades him: his average Bristol running position of 20.16 suggests the track doesn’t suit him regardless of where he starts. The front-row start is new territory — contrarian GPP dart throw if you believe the new package changes his Bristol fortunes, though the data says otherwise.
P2Starting Position (15.124s — best Bristol qual ever)
5th30-Lap Practice Avg (up from 13th at 10-lap)
20.16Avg Bristol Running Position (career)
+2500Odds (FanDuel · still a fade)
22.6 avg finish in last 5 concrete Bristol races · starts P20
Logano’s NextGen Bristol numbers are brutal: a 22.6 average finish across the last five concrete races. He has not finished better than 22nd in five of six NextGen concrete races (one 5th-place outlier). Keselowski has beaten him at Bristol in six straight races.
Saturday Update: Qualified P20 (15.311s). His practice long-run data showed some late-run improvement (10th at 10-lap rising to 4th at 30-lap), which is his most encouraging Bristol practice in years. But at +1600 DK, his price still doesn’t reflect how badly he’s struggled here in the NextGen era. The practice improvement makes him a marginal contrarian play but the 22.6 avg finish across five races is too steep a hill. Keselowski at +2000 with better Bristol form is the preferred Penske exposure.
P20Starting Position (15.311s)
4th30-Lap Practice Avg (best data point)
22.6Avg Finish (last 5 concrete Bristol)
0-6H2H Record vs. Keselowski (last 6)
Six Bristol starts, zero top-10s, 23.8 average finish · starts P9
Cindric’s Bristol numbers are among the worst of any regular competitor: six starts, zero top-10s, and a 23.8 average finish. His 8th at
Martinsville doesn’t translate to Bristol form — the two short tracks are fundamentally different in surface, banking, and tire behavior.
Saturday Update: Qualified P9 (15.200s) — his best Bristol qualifying ever, likely benefiting from Penske’s qualifying setup gains that also put Blaney on pole. Don’t confuse qualifying speed with race speed: his 23.8 career Bristol average finish shows he consistently fades backward on race day regardless of where he starts. At +6500, there’s no value in chasing a qualifying fluke.
P9Starting Position (best Bristol qual ever)
0Top-10s in 6 Bristol Starts
23.8Avg Finish at Bristol
Pole winner · dominant long-run practice — but zero Cup wins in 19 Bristol starts
Saturday Update: Blaney won the pole with a blistering 15.101s / 127.064 mph and dominated every multi-lap practice metric from 15 laps onward (1st in 15-lap, 20-lap, 25-lap, and 30-lap averages). His practice-to-qualifying improvement of 0.395 seconds was the largest in the top-10 qualifiers. By the numbers, he has the strongest combined weekend of any driver.
Why he’s a fade for the win: CBS Sports/SportsLine is specifically fading Blaney for the win citing his winless 19-start Bristol Cup record — zero wins and no top-3 finish across 19 starts despite consistently strong qualifying and the 2024 championship. His NextGen Bristol avg finish of 10.6 is solid but not elite (5th in the field). The data pattern suggests he qualifies well but can’t finish the job on race day at this track. He’s a strong top-5 play but the win equity doesn’t match his +600 price.
P1Pole (15.101s / 127.064 mph)
1st30-Lap Practice Average (dominant)
0Cup Wins in 19 Bristol Starts
10.6NextGen Bristol Avg Finish (5th in field)
Qualified P34 at $10,000 DK — DFS trap of the week
Saturday Update: Qualified a dismal P34 (15.554s) — the worst of any Hendrick car and 36th out of 37 among serious contenders. At $10,000 DK salary, he would need a historic position-differential gain of 20+ spots just to break even on DFS points. His NextGen Bristol record is already poor: zero laps led across six concrete races, a 15.8 average finish, and a worst finish of 35th. The P34 start makes him a clear DFS fade and one of the week’s biggest salary traps.
P34Starting Position (15.554s)
0Laps Led in Entire NextGen Bristol Era
$10,000DK Salary (overpriced for P34 start)
15.8NextGen Bristol Avg Finish
Complete Starting Lineup — All 37 Cars
| Pos | Driver | # | Team | Make | Time | Speed |
|---|
| 1 | Ryan Blaney | 12 | Team Penske | Ford | 15.101s | 127.064 |
| 2 | Tyler Reddick | 45 | 23XI Racing | Toyota | 15.124s | 126.871 |
| 3 | Chase Briscoe | 19 | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota | 15.135s | 126.779 |
| 4 | Riley Herbst | 35 | 23XI Racing | Toyota | 15.147s | ~126.679 |
| 5 | Ty Gibbs | 54 | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota | 15.164s | ~126.537 |
| 6 | Ross Chastain | 1 | Trackhouse Racing | Chevrolet | 15.175s | ~126.445 |
| 7 | Chris Buescher | 17 | RFK Racing | Ford | 15.190s | ~126.320 |
| 8 | Kyle Larson | 5 | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet | 15.192s | ~126.303 |
| 9 | Austin Cindric | 2 | Team Penske | Ford | 15.200s | ~126.237 |
| 10 | Carson Hocevar | 77 | Spire Motorsports | Chevrolet | 15.201s | ~126.229 |
| 11 | Denny Hamlin | 11 | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota | 15.225s | ~126.030 |
| 12 | Bubba Wallace | 23 | 23XI Racing | Toyota | 15.231s | ~125.980 |
| 13 | Daniel Suárez | 7 | Spire Motorsports | Chevrolet | 15.233s | ~125.964 |
| 14 | Christopher Bell | 20 | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota | 15.261s | ~125.733 |
| 15 | Zane Smith | 38 | Front Row Motorsports | Ford | 15.277s | ~125.601 |
| 16 | Noah Gragson | 4 | Front Row Motorsports | Ford | 15.279s | ~125.585 |
| 17 | Ryan Preece | 60 | RFK Racing | Ford | 15.282s | ~125.560 |
| 18 | Chase Elliott | 9 | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet | 15.285s | ~125.535 |
| 19 | Michael McDowell | 71 | Spire Motorsports | Chevrolet | 15.291s | ~125.486 |
| 20 | Joey Logano | 22 | Team Penske | Ford | 15.311s | ~125.322 |
| 21 | Brad Keselowski | 6 | RFK Racing | Ford | 15.312s | ~125.314 |
| 22 | A.J. Allmendinger | 16 | Kaulig Racing | Chevrolet | 15.323s | ~125.224 |
| 23 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 47 | Hyak Motorsports | Chevrolet | 15.331s | ~125.159 |
| 24 | Austin Dillon | 3 | Richard Childress | Chevrolet | 15.344s | ~125.053 |
| 25 | Josh Berry | 21 | Wood Brothers Racing | Ford | 15.364s | ~124.890 |
| 26 | Connor Zilisch | 88 | Trackhouse Racing | Chevrolet | 15.368s | ~124.858 |
| 27 | Alex Bowman | 48 | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet | 15.368s | ~124.858 |
| 28 | Erik Jones | 43 | Legacy Motor Club | Toyota | 15.378s | ~124.777 |
| 29 | Kyle Busch | 8 | Richard Childress | Chevrolet | 15.389s | ~124.688 |
| 30 | Cole Custer | 41 | Haas Factory Team | Chevrolet | 15.404s | ~124.566 |
| 31 | John H. Nemechek | 42 | Legacy Motor Club | Toyota | 15.467s | ~124.058 |
| 32 | Ty Dillon | 10 | Kaulig Racing | Chevrolet | 15.498s | ~123.809 |
| 33 | Shane van Gisbergen | 97 | Trackhouse Racing | Chevrolet | 15.514s | ~123.681 |
| 34 | William Byron | 24 | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet | 15.554s | ~123.362 |
| 35 | Todd Gilliland | 34 | Front Row Motorsports | Ford | 15.593s | ~123.053 |
| 36 | Cody Ware | 51 | Rick Ware Racing | Chevrolet | 15.613s | ~122.896 |
| 37 | Chad Finchum | 66 | Garage 66 | Ford | 15.711s | ~122.127 |
Manufacturer breakdown: Chevrolet 17 cars, Ford 11 cars, Toyota 9 cars. All 37 entries qualified (36 charter + 1 open in Finchum). Toyota placed four cars in the top five. Blaney’s 0.395-second practice-to-qualifying improvement was the largest among top-10 qualifiers; Briscoe gained 0.427s (27th practice → 3rd qualifying) and Buescher gained 0.483s (36th practice → 7th qualifying).
Practice Long-Run Averages (iFantasyRace.com)
| Driver | 10-Lap | 15-Lap | 20-Lap | 25-Lap | 30-Lap |
|---|
| Ryan Blaney | 2nd | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st |
| Kyle Larson | 18th | 15th | 11th | 3rd | 2nd |
| Michael McDowell | 8th | 5th | 3rd | 2nd | 3rd |
| Joey Logano | 10th | 12th | 9th | 5th | 4th |
| Tyler Reddick | 13th | 17th | 14th | 7th | 5th |
| Bubba Wallace | 6th | 7th | 7th | 6th | 6th |
| Denny Hamlin | 22nd | 20th | 13th | 8th | 10th |
Larson’s 18th→2nd long-run trajectory is the most interesting data point — his car is built to peak late in runs. McDowell was a consistent top-3 from 20 laps onward. Bell struggled (12th at 10 laps, deteriorating to 28th at 20 before recovering to 16th at 30). Elliott didn’t complete enough consecutive laps to register a 30-lap average. Hocevar showed early-run strength (3rd at 10, 2nd at 15) but faded to 8th over 30 laps.
Martinsville Recap Sets the Stage
Chase Elliott won the Cook Out 400 at Martinsville on March 29 by short-pitting on Lap 261, then capitalizing on a perfectly timed debris caution on Lap 312. Denny Hamlin led 292 of 400 laps and won both stages but finished second by 0.565 seconds — beaten on strategy, not speed. The race’s biggest drama was a Lap 325 incident where Bubba Wallace got into Carson Hocevar in Turn 4, triggering a 12-car accident that dropped Wallace from 3rd to 11th in points.
Reddick’s Historic Season Meets His Worst Track
Reddick became the first driver in Cup history to win the first three races of a season (Daytona, Atlanta, COTA), then added Darlington for four wins in seven starts. He leads Ryan Blaney by 82 points. But Bristol is kryptonite — his 19.4 career average finish here creates a fascinating tension between season form and track history.
The New Chase Format
NASCAR returned to “The Chase” for 2026 — top 16 by points after 26 races qualify (no win-and-in). Win points increased from 40 to 55. Daniel Suárez currently sits 16th — the last Chase spot — just 9 points above Michael McDowell at the cutline.
2026 Winners Through 7 Races
4 winsTyler Reddick (Daytona, Atlanta, COTA, Darlington)
1 winRyan Blaney (Phoenix)
1 winDenny Hamlin (Las Vegas)
1 winChase Elliott (Martinsville)
Top 10 Drivers by Average Finish — 6 Concrete Bristol Races
| Driver | Avg Fin | W | T5 | T10 | Laps Led | Best | Worst |
|---|
| Christopher Bell | 5.4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 228 | 1st | 10th |
| Denny Hamlin | 7.8 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 500+ | 1st | 31st |
| Kyle Larson | 8.2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 912 | 1st | 32nd |
| Ty Gibbs | 8.4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 440 | 3rd | 15th |
| Ryan Blaney | 10.6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 92 | 4th | 22nd |
| Chase Briscoe | 12.2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 127 | 4th | 27th |
| Chase Elliott | 14.0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2nd | 38th |
| William Byron | 15.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6th | 35th |
| Tyler Reddick | 19.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15th | 30th |
| Joey Logano | 22.6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5th | 34th |
Bell’s floor is the highest in the field — he’s never finished worse than 10th at Bristol in the NextGen era. Larson’s 912 laps led dwarfs everyone else, but his 32nd-place worst finish shows he’s boom-or-bust. Hamlin’s 31st in the Fall 2025 was a parts failure anomaly; excluding that, his average drops to ~3.4. Byron has led zero laps in the entire NextGen era at Bristol despite driving Hendrick equipment — a stark warning sign.
1
Historical Track Analysis
We review each driver’s last 5+ starts at Bristol (concrete races only — dirt races excluded). Average finish, laps led, and stage points are the most predictive metrics at this track. Bristol’s unique concrete surface means data from other short tracks (Martinsville, Richmond) has limited crossover value.
2
Recent Form Check
The Martinsville results and earlier 2026 short-track data provide critical context. Elliott’s Martinsville win, Hamlin’s dominant 292-lap run, and Gibbs’s 5-race top-6 streak all inform Bristol projections.
3
Practice & Qualifying Integration
Saturday’s practice and qualifying data are now fully integrated. Blaney’s pole and dominant long-run speed, Larson’s 18th→2nd trajectory, McDowell’s sleeper emergence, Bell’s concerning mid-run fade, and five inspection penalties all reshape projections from Thursday’s preview. Long-run averages (15-lap through 30-lap) are the most predictive practice metric at Bristol.
4
Value Assessment
DFS strategy at Bristol: In cash games, roster two of the big three (Larson/Hamlin/Bell) plus Gibbs as your value anchor. For tournaments, differentiate by fading one premium name and pivoting to Elliott’s momentum plus Buescher or Preece in the value tier. For more on our overall strategy framework, see the full guide.